Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats, Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Saturday, February 26, 2011, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Kentucky -8
Current Line: Kentucky -8 1/2
Opening Total: 135 1/2
Current Total: 137
Money Line: Kentucky -400 / Florida +330
Florida can clinch the SEC East Division title with a win over arch-rival Kentucky at historic Rupp Arena today. It won’t be easy as Kentucky is a very talented and dangerous team. Florida is #13 in both polls with a 22-5 overall record and the Gators are 11-2 in SEC play. Florida beat Kentucky earlier this month in Gainesville 70-68, part of a six game winning streak for the Gators. Florida beat Georgia at home Thursday night 71-62. Florida is looking like a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Gators have losses to Ohio St, Central Florida, Jacksonville, South Carolina, and Mississippi St. Four of the Gators’ five losses are at home this season. Florida has wins over Florida St, Kent St, Kansas St, Xavier, Rhode Island, Ole Miss, Tennessee twice, Auburn, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU this season. Kentucky is #22 in both polls. The young Wildcats have underachieved this season with a 19-8 record and they are 7-6 in the SEC. Kebtucky has wins over Oklahoma, Washington, Notre Dame, Indiana, Louisville, Penn, Auburn, LSU, South Carolina twice, Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi St. The Wildcats have losses to Connecticut, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas this year. Kentucky lost at Arkansas 77-76 in overtime Wednesday night.
Kentucky leads the overall series against Florida 88-33 including 8-44 at Rupp Arena. Florida has won 9 of the last meetings in the series. Kentucky is 3-2 strsight up in the last 5 but Florida is 4-1 ATS in those games. Kentucky is 13-0 at home this season and 31-0 at home since John Calipari took over the program last year. Florida has wins at Florida St, Xavier and Tennessee this season so they can go into hostile environments and play well. Florida has not won at Kentucky since 2007.
Florida has no significant injuries right now. The Gators are led by guard Erving Walker. He is averaging 14.8 points to lead the team, 3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.1 steals a game to lead the team. He is shooting 38.3% from 3-point range. Guard Kenny Boynton is averaging 13.3 points, 1.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists a game. Center Vernon Macklin is averaging 11.3 points, 6 rebounds, and leads the team in blocks with 0.9 a game. He struggles from the free throw line converting only 45.3% from the stripe. Chandler Parsons averages 11 points, 7.7 rebounds to lead the team, 3.6 assists to lead the team, and 1 steal a game. Florida is outscoring opponents 71-62 on the season. The Gators are shooting 45.7% from the field and 34.1% from 3-point range. Gator opponents are shooting 41.9% from the field. The Gators shoot 66.4% from the free throw line. Florida averages 38 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +6.4. They average 13.7 assists and 12.6 turnovers a game. The Gators force 13.2 turnovers a game on defense. Florida averages 6.3 steals and 3.8 blocks a game.
Kentucky has no significant injuries right now. Kentucky is outscoring opponents 78-64 on the season. Kentucky is a very young team with 5 freshmen among the 10 players on the roster. Four Wildcats score in double figures. Point guard Brandon Knight is a freshman and scores 17.7 points, averages 4.1 rebounds and leads the team in assists with 4 a game. Freshman forward Terrance Jones averages 17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds to lead the team, and 2 blocks a game to lead the team. He also averages 1.8 assists and 1.2 steals a game. Freshman shooting guard Doron Lamb is averaging 13.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. Calipari benched Lamb in the last game for a perceived lack of effort. Darius Miller averages 10.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.2 blocks a game. Junior Guard DeAndre Liggins averages 8.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and leads the team in steals with 1.4 a game. Josh Harrellson is averaging 8.8 rebounds and 1.6 blocks a game. Kentucky is shooting 46.3% from the field and 39.6% from 3 point range. The Wildcats are holding opponents to 38.8% shooting from the field. The Wildcats are shooting 71.7% from the free throw line. Kentucky averages 38.7 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +4.9. The Wildcats are averaging 13 assists and 11.2 turnovers a game. They force 12.6 turnovers a game on defense. Kentucky averages 5.8 steals and 6.5 blocks a game.
I think this line is way too high. Kentucky is 5-5 in their last 10 games. Yes, they are much better at home, but Florida is 7-1 this season in true road games. Florida has won 6 in a row and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Florida will cover this number and has a good shot of winning outright.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot in 2011. Don’t miss out on any more winners this season.
