Texas Rangers (52-41) AT Seattle Mariners (43-49)
July 15, 2011 at 10:10 PM EST
Opening Line: TEX -130, SEA +110
Current Line: TEX -114, SEA -105
Opening Total: 7
Current Total: 7
SP: TEX- Colby Lewis; SEA- Doug Fister
There has probably never been a pitcher as frustrated as Doug Fister is right now. Despite excellent pitching and a 3.09 ERA, he was won just 3 of 13 decisions and has received the lowest run support in the entire major league, only further proving the irrelevancy of pitchers’ records, but nonetheless a source of frustration for the Mariners’ hurler. Fister has received only 2.15 runs per 9 innings and has received 8 runs combined over his last 7 starts. Naturally, he is 0-5 in that stretch.
Texas has seemingly moved on unaffected from the bizarre death accident I mentioned in yesterday’s writeup, and Hamilton continued his excellent play by hitting a solo homer in the first inning, as Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli also banged homers later in the game. Derek Holland also threw another shutout.
That’s a lot of positives for a team that has now won 8 straight and have outscored their opponents 58 to 22 during the run, their longest win streak since an 11 game streak in June of 2010. Comparatively, the Mariners have only scored 9 runs in the last 6 games, and once again, as I said it would – the total went under last night, with Texas scoring all 5 runs in a game with the total set at 7.
With the Mariners hitting .221 on the season, the only reason to fear totals going over are when there is reason to suspect the opposing team to have a very good night. That reason is certainly relevant against the Rangers, but Fister will continue to pitch well, run support or not.
Mariners manager Eric Wedge says his hitters have to “take some risks, get out there and square up the ball..(and) make adjustments to what you are seeing from the opposing pitcher.” I don’t think it is that simple. I think the Mariners simply need to deal one of their top shelf pitchers for some offense. Teams can’t win on pitching alone, and the Mariners know that all too well, sitting 6 games below .500
The Rangers will send Colby Lewis to the mound tonight. Lewis is 8-7 with a 4.38 ERA and will attempt to win his first game at Seattle’s Safeco Field. He is 4-0 against the Mariners at home, but in his 6 starts at Safeco he is 0-4 with a 3.72 ERA…not that such is a bad ERA, but it hasn’t been enough, as the Rangers have given Lewis one or zero runs of support in four of the seven games in Seattle.
Lewis has compiled a 3-0 record with a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts, however. Lewis spent some time in Japan, which bettered him in a way that has made him a solid starter. At 6’4″ 215, he has the power and stuff to be dominant, but his concentration seems to waver and he loses confidence when he gets behind in counts. His fastball is now in the low-90s, but his slider sets it up effectively. At age 31, he should still be able to put in a few more good seasons in the MLB, though.
Some betting trends:
The Texas Rangers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER In 4 of the Rangers’ last 5 games on the road. The Rangers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 road games and they are 6-2 SU in their last 8 at home against the Seattle Mariners. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Rangers’ last 15 games on the road against the Mariners.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle’s last 11 games and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 12 at home and they are 2-5 SU in their last 7 at home. The Mariners are 2-6 SU in their last 8 against the Rangers and the total has gone UNDER in 10 of the last 15 games at home against the Texas Rangers.
I continue to suggest the same trend of betting every single Mariners’ game under. Moreover, given their struggles of late, a parlay bet with the ‘under’ and ML on the Rangers seems to make a lot of sense here. It’s not that Colby Lewis is that good, but the Mariners certainly are that bad, and Fister should be able to keep the Rangers in check to keep the total under 7.
