Now that free agency has come to an end we can give our initial rankings for fantasy basketball player ratings. While this list will fluctuate a little before the season in October this is a good starting point for mock drafts.
01 Kevin Durant
With Lebron notoriously “taking [his] talents to South Beach,” Durant no longer has any challengers for the scoring title. Moreover, his rebounding has been steadily improving, and he is as consistent as they come, and only 21 years old. He gets to the line 10 times a night and hits 90% of them. He is the new top dog and has been steadily going #1 in these early mocks.
02 Chris Paul
The former consensus #1 is now the consensus #2. His all around game and high steals make him worth a #2 pick and he has been edging out Lebron James, 2.2 vs 2.8
03 Lebron James
Lebron takes his fall to 3, but can go no lower. His assists will likely go up, as may his rebounding. I expect his scoring to go down to the 24-26 ppg area, but his overall dominance makes him one of the most valuable player, especially in head to head leagues.
04 Dirk Nowitzki
Dirk is steady, reliable, and very effective. He’s easily the best European player to come through the NBA and he has been a top 5 pick for the last 5 years.
05 Dwyane Wade
Wade falls a spot from last year, but should still be the #1 option in Miami. If he stays the #1 option and diverts some attention towards feeding Bosh, he should put up mid first round numbers, so he belongs here in the 6th spot.
06 Stephen Curry
Last year I took Stephen Curry in the 5th round of a 5 keeper league, so essentially round 10. That one kinda worked out… Curry played a load of minutes last year and put up great numbers. Part of it is the Golden State effect, but I think most people agree he would be productive no matter where he played.
07 Kobe Bryant
Kobe is not the same Kobe that averaged 35 ppg. He is better. Now that he has Gasol to share the rock with, he has increased his efficiency. The problem with Kobe’s improvement, however, is that his improvement has been a regression in fantasy. He no longer has to hog the ball for the Lakers to win, and his scoring is down because of it.
08 Danny Granger
Granger can easily be taken as high as 5th, but no one really ever does that. He’s a lot like Shaun Marion was in his prime, being a lanky forward that does a little bit of everything and knocks down a fair amount of threes (let it be known that Granger hits a lot of threes). His one steal/one block production is nice too (actually 1.5 and 0.8, but who is nitpicking?).
09 Deron Williams
It takes this long for the next point guard after Paul to enter the list. Deron Williams is close to being the player Paul is in real life, but in fantasy, it isn’t even close. Paul blows Deron away, and Deron is even a 20-10 player.
10 Pau Gasol
Gasol has been a first round pick almost his entire career, and there is no reason for it to change. He is clearly the most talented big man in the league offensively, and is remarkably consistent within the triangle offense, which he seems like he was practically made for.
11 David Lee
David Lee is probably the most underrated player both in real life and in fantasy. OK, so he doesn’t play much defense. Since when were casual fans so concerned about defense to begin with? Lee is a solid 20-10 for the next 5-7 years. It only makes sense for him to rank here.
12 Carmelo Anthony
Carmelo went wild last year in terms of his career stats. Prior to last year, his highest season PPG was 22. After last year, it was 28. He used to be picked in the mid 30s, now he is mid teens. And there is no reason to believe he won’t continue to put those numbers up, even if he wants out of Denver the entire time he plays for them.
13 Amare Stoudemire
I think this is the first overrated player of the list. Amare’s stats are going to take a serious hit without Nash, and so will his inflated Field Goal percentage. I don’t expect him to be anywhere near as effective with Felton being his Nash.
14 Gerald Wallace
Crash Wallace is a great rebounder and excellent defender (1.5 stl, 1.1 blk). He also scores 18.2 ppg. While there are always injury concerns, it’s very hard to pass on Wallace, because he is that good.\
15 Josh Smith
Josh Smith did all of us a favor when he stopped shooting threes. It is clear to see his strength is defense, and it would be nice if he focused most of his energy on that end of the court. He can score, but what makes him especially valuable are his blocks and steals. He should contend for Defensive Player of the year, but It’s difficult to see Dwight Howard losing his grip on that award, unless the media grows tired of him winning (which happens a lot of course).
16 Brook Lopez
Lopez is this generations Tim Duncan. Efficient, large bodied, and not exciting sums up both of them. Brook Lopez seldom has exciting plays, but he manages to get his numbers and he is the best player on the worst team in the league.
17 Dwight Howard
Dwight has so much untapped offensive potential. Already armed with a decent right handed hook shot, he needs to improve his footwork so that he can more easily spin off defenders when attacking the basket. He also needs to hold the ball above his head when he gets an offensive rebound. His defensive numbers and defensive game are tough to beat, and he is a lot like a much more offensively gifted version of Ben Wallace. Oh, and about 3 inches taller too, of course.
18 Rajon Rondo
Rondo has quickly emerged as one of the game’s best point guards. His only Achilles’ Heel is his free throw shooting. He manages to be one of the league’s worst free throw shooters (and I would be inclined to say it is because of his hands being so oversized). He hustles every minute and has a great work ethic, so it is easy to see Rondo maintaining his position on this list, or even improving it if he can work on the free throws.
19 Jason Kidd
Every year is supposed to be the year Kidd falls off, yet it never happens. He’s relying on his skills now as his athleticism and ability to defend are all but gone. Fortunately, in fantasy, one on one defense plays very little a role. Kidd will continue to rack up the assists for as long as he plays and he could very well keep up his production until he is 40.
20 Steve Nash
Like Kidd, Nash has an amazing skill set that you almost can’t teach. His court vision and anticipatory skills are very tough to match and he is essentially a modern Bob Cousy, the first to throw behind the back passes, of course. Nash probably also could have been a pro soccer player. Dragic will take some minutes this year, but it is so hard to demote Nash in our minds, when it seems like he doesn’t age at all.
21 Chris Bosh
By anyone’s account, Bosh’s move to Miami is going to hurt his fantasy prospects. He will become the third option, where as before he was the clear number one option in Toronto. It’s his doing though. He chose to follow Wade’s coattails, and their respective decisions paved the way for Lebron to join them in what is probably the most talented trio, at least offensively, in NBA history. Just don’t expect Bosh’s numbers to increase.
22 Andre Iguodala
Iguodala has been the topic of trade rumors since the Sixers took Evan Turner second overall in last year’s draft. I, for one, think that is foolish. There is no guarantee that Turner will be anywhere near as good as Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is proven and still young enough to be a franchise player. I think they will regret it if they deal him, unless the return package is too hard to resist.
23 Brandon Roy
Roy continues to be a point guard playing shooting guard. I think it might benefit him to be the point and possess the ball a lot more, but that isn’t Nate McMillan’s thoughts, so it doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. Roy continues to be a very clutch player that is capable of exploding from time to time.
24 Chauncey Billups
Billups came out and said this week that he wants to play four more seasons. He turns 34 next month, so that will put him at age 38 when he goes into his last season on that contract. I don’t think he will be terribly less valuable then, but he probably won’t be as good as he is now. That really doesn’t have much to do with his ranking though, which seems about right when you consider what his numbers are right now.
25 Carlos Boozer
No one really knew Boozer was going to be this good. He wasn’t anything special at Duke and was considered by many to be too short to succeed in the post. He has proven everyone wrong with a solid but odd looking jump shot and an uncanny ability to knock other bodies out of the way when in pursuit of the ball. He’s a lot like a young but better version of his former coach Paul Silas. Both are 6’7 but mix it up with much larger players and have little reservation about banging the glass.
26 Al Jefferson
Al Jefferson figures to be steady as he moves to Utah. I think it might benefit him to have Deron Williams finding him for dunks, rather than the more offensively and less-gifted Johnny Flynn. Jefferson has a big body and will find his way in the Western Conference, against the likes of Greg Oden, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan.
27 Joe Johnson
JJ really let everyone down in the playoffs last year, and I was certain we had seen the end of him in Atlanta. But then he ended up receiving a max contract, directly AFTER having choked in the playoffs and putting up four stinkers versus Orlando. Sometimes the NBA doesn’t make sense, and players like Joe Johnson epitomize this. Didn’t Atlanta learn anything from the Magic’s signing of Rashard Lewis?
28 Al Horford
Horford made his first all-star team last year and is still getting better. While the Hawks know for a fact he would be better off at power forward, they have not yet been presented with a center that is good enough to start and allow Horford to slide over to the 4 spot. There are a few options the Hawks could pursue in trades, but right now Horford’s center eligibility serves as an attractive feature right now. Without it, he will still be a steady star and double double lock, but none the less…
29 Andrea Bargnani
Bargnani is not, and I repeat, not, the type of talent that should be the best on any given team. For that reason, I would venture to say that Toronto puts up the second worst record next season, after perennial crap house Minnesota.
30 Monta Ellis
I remember when he had his moped accident, thinking “Well, he’ll never be the same.” It just didn’t seem that he would in light of how serious the Warriors made the incident, fining and suspending him without pay for 50 games. Somehow, however, he has not only got back to that level, but actually superceded it. Part of his fantasy dominance can be attributed to the Golden State effect, but Ellis is a great slasher and decent shooter, which will go along way if you’re quick enough to do it, and he is.
31 Tim Duncan
Duncan is beginning to show signs of slowing down, and the fact that he takes off the second game of back-to-backs is all the evidence you need to know that. He is still a dominant power forward, probably the second best ever (I still favor Karl Malone, even if he didn’t get any rings), but his numbers are gradually declining and he isn’t getting any faster.
32 Troy Murphy
Murphy is one of the best examples of a player that is no where near as good in real life as he is in fantasy. His rebounding and threes make him valuable chip on fantasy teams, but in real life he fails to bring much defense or intensity. He’s still a very good power forward, but you’ll never see him on an all-star team.
33 Andrew Bogut
Somehow, last year, Bogut figured out that he could block shots. It had to be a revelation for him, as he more than doubled his highest block total from previous seasons. Couple that with the fact he is now playing with a legit point guard in Jennings and it becomes easy to see why he would be drafted here. If anything, I would rank him a few spots higher, assuming his elbow and finger have healed up properly.
34 David West
Two years ago, David West appeared to be on his ascent to being one of the league’s top power forwards, yet, for some reason, he never made it there. He made the all star team and coupled with Chris Paul, the Hornets were in the middle of a near contending season. Since that time, no one really is able to put a finger on why West failed to make the transition into being a superstar, we just know that he has failed to make the jump.
35 Tyreke Evans
Tyreke Evans became the fourth player to average 20/5/5 in his rookie season, putting him in exclusive company (Oscar Robertson, Lebron James, Michael Jordan). Unfortunately, he is no where near as good as the company he keeps on that list. No one expects Evans to make the jump to being anywhere near that dominant, but his overall ability does allow him to rank relatively high. I would be surprised if he built much on top of last season, but could forsee small jumps across the board.
36 Nene
Nene is a model of efficiency. His high field goal percentage and good defensive numbers make him a very valuable fantasy player. I don’t think he’ll ever go as high as he should, but maybe there is some kind of reason for that. I just don’t see it.
37 Derrick Rose
Rose is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, the opposite of the aforementioned Troy Murphy. His offensive numbers are solid, but he doesn’t get many steals, doesn’t hit many threes, and he turns the ball over a lot.
38 Manu Ginobili
Ginobili is effective every year, and it seems he is another who always goes too low in drafts. Maybe there is nothing exciting about drafting Ginobili, who seems very unlikely to improve. They just fail to take into account how good he already is.
39 Paul Pierce
Pierce fell off badly last year in PPG. It was bound to happen eventually. He did save his best for the playoffs, but the playoffs don’t count in fantasy, and it has become clear that all of Boston’s starters are going to be given ample rest in order to be ready for the playoffs. Think of the Spurs approach two and three seasons ago.
40 Rudy Gay
Rudy Gay is turning heads on the FIBA national team, but he never seemed to reach the level that many had been placing him, namely as the next Danny Granger. He may eventually crack the top 20, as he has that kind of potential. He was certainly paid as though he will do it.
41 Marc Gasol
Pau’s little brother has really come into his own and is a very effective and efficient center. A true center, Gasol has the kind of body and strength that will make him very effective down low.
42 Russell Westbrook
Westbrook’s atrocious field goal percentage really hurts him. Like Rondo, he lacks an outside shot and it shows in his percentages. He is eventually going to be a very good player, but he needs to improve his efficiency to get much higher in fantasy.
43 Mo Williams
Mo Williams will get a lot more shots with Lebron James out of town, but he is aging now, too, and may not approach his numbers from his Milwaukee days. He should be a good source of threes and decent for assists (7 a game maybe?), but ultimately, Lebron’s absence may actually end up hurting Mo as he clearly will get less open looks now.
44 Zach Randolph
An absolutely deadly team cancer in real life, Randolph is brilliant for fantasy. He is a complete black hole on offense and barely ever looks to give the ball up. He kills for offensive rebounds, but only because it means he can score more. He’s very conscious of his stats and will do what it takes to get them.
45 Marcus Camby
Camby is starting to seem like an old circus clown on stilts, moving very slow but always managing to get his ridiculously long arms to the ball. He’s now 36 and still putting up great numbers. He’s like an even more effective version of Kevin Willis. Can he, like Willis, play until age 44?
46 Kevin Love
Love offers a rare breed of guard-like offensive skills coupled with a big man’s body. Not afraid to step out for threes, Love will bang down low, then take you outside behind the arc. He’s like a fat and less impressive version of Dirk Nowitzki.
47 Stephen Jackson
Captain Jack always puts up great numbers. Even after leaving Golden State, he continued to put up great numbers for the Bobcats.
48 Darren Collison
Collison’s move to Indiana is a great boon since now we’ll get to see him start rather than play behind Chris Paul. While Paul was out, Collison did his best impression of him, averaging 19 ppg and 10 apg in a stretch of games during Paul’s absence.
49 Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin has fallen off, and not just because of age. He has been unfortunate enough to go from being a number one option to just another player.
50 Joakim Noah
Noah is going to be a walking double double for the next eight to ten years. It remains to be seen whether he can craft a solid offensive game. He is a bit awkward on offense so it doesn’t look like he has the fluidity to have great moves down low. Maybe, like his skill equivalent Varejao, he can learn to move well without the ball and get a lot of easy looks around the basket.
