On Friday night these two media-friendly teams meet, as the Jets host the ‘Skins in a week 3 NFL preseason matchup. The Jets opened as a 4 point favorite, but now most sportsbooks are listing the Jets as 5 point favorites with a few checking in at either 4 ½ or 5 ½. To compare lines from various sportsbooks, make sure to check out our NFL lines page.
There are two primary reasons for the line moving to 5 points. First, Redskins starting quarterback Donovan McNabb has been ruled out for the game. McNabb injured his left ankle in the second quarter of last Saturday’s 23-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Good news for Redskins fans is that McNabb is no longer forced to wear a protective walking boot, and Shanahan has indicated that McNabb will be ready for the start of the regular season. The second reason for the line movement is that public betting has been on the side of the Jets at just over 60%. Presumably, bettors have taken note of McNabb’s expected absence, in addition to the Jets stingy defense.
But 5 points seem like a lot in this game, and bettors should consider fading this public favorite. The Jets have looked ok in preseason play, but nothing like the dominating defense from last season. In week 1 the Jets yielded over 350 yards to the Giants, including 3 touchdowns to rookie Victor Cruz en route to a 31-16 Giants victory. The Jets starting offense looked decent, and the defense managed to knock Eli Manning out of the game, but the NFL preseason – like the regular season – is four quarters long. The Jets’ backups could not match the productivity of the Giants’. Last week, the Jets managed to sneak out of Carolina with a 9-3 victory in a game that was especially painful to watch. According to Ryan, “Our offense got it handed to us by a pretty good defense. I know we can play better than that. The execution wasn’t very good. Clearly you’re not going to win very many games that way, but we won this one.” Ryan was spot-on. The Jets managed only a meager 112 yards of total offense, while Carolina was not much better, totaling 175 yards. Starting quarterback Mark Sanchez struggled mightily, finishing 5-10 for 12 yards. The key to the Jets victory was 5 Panther turnovers. The big losers were the people who chose to watch the game.
The Redskins were not much better last week. Washington ended up with more turnovers (4) than points (3), losing 23-3 to the Baltimore Ravens. But turnovers – not yards – were the problem; the ‘Skins ended up with a respectable 390 yards. Backup quarterback Rex Grossman put up solid numbers, going 14-21 for 195 yards. More troubling for the Redskins is their inability to either run the ball or stop the run. Neither Clinton Portis nor Larry Johnson has done anything worth mentioning. And defensively, Washington needs to get better against the run. In a week 1 victory against Buffalo, the Bills averaged an astounding 8.1 yards per carry. Against Baltimore, the Ravens piled up 143 yards on the ground, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. The Redskins defense needs to play better, bottom line.
But I think the absence of McNabb will end up being a positive for the Redskins in this particular matchup. Knowing that their starting qb is out, look for Shanahan to place much more emphasis on both establishing the run and stopping it. Further, look for Rex Grossman to take advantage of his situation. The former Bears starting quarterback has thrown the ball well so far this preseason and getting an opportunity to play with the first string is just what Grossman is looking for. Hopefully backups John Beck and/or Richard Bartel see very limited action. Also helping the ‘Skins is their recent butt-whooping by the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens and Jets share a lot of similarities offensively and defensively, and look for Shanahan to have his troops prepared for this game. Consider fading the public favorite Jets; though to find the best plays of the weekend, make sure to grab our premium NFL game picks package.
