Thursday night Green Bay (2-1) travels to Kansas City (0-3) to take on the Chiefs in the final week of preseason play. Our NFL lines page indicates the Chiefs opened as 6 ½ point favorites with sportsbooks currently putting the game at either 6 or 5 ½ points. The public has been all over the Packers, siding with Green Bay in over 75% of wagers. Don’t be surprised to see the line come down another point.
The public has bet the Packers heavily all preseason, and this week is no different. It’s no secret that the Packers sport an explosive offense, and Aaron Rodgers and company have not disappointed. On top of that, Kansas City is one of only three winless teams in preseason action (Chicago and Indianapolis). After KC’s poor campaign last season, Green Bay is an attractive wager for most bettors. But all things considered, I think it’s worth your time and money to fade the public favorite Packers in this match-up.
If Aaron Rodgers plays at all, it won’t be much. I see one or two series. Then backups Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell will show the Green Bay coaching staff what they can do with the second and third stringers. Both Flynn and Harrell have been decent so far; last week Flynn tossed two touchdowns in the slaughtering of Indianapolis. Regarding the past week of practice and upcoming game with Kansas City, Flynn said, “It’s definitely a big week and a week that I think all of the twos’ look forward to. We’re going to get more reps than we have all camp and any of the games, so it’s something to look forward to.” With players fighting to make the 53 man roster cuts this Saturday, look for great effort from all players. But don’t expect the Packers to come anywhere near the 59 points they put up last week. Instead, I see somewhere between 17 and 24 points.
Additionally, injuries have been a problem for Green Bay. Cornerback Al Harris was recently placed on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which means he won’t be eligible to play for six weeks. Starting safety Atari Bigby joined Harris on the PUP list. The linebacking core has been hit hard, too.
We will be releasing a handful of plays for the Thursday NFL and college football card. You can get on board with these winners via our NFL pro picks webpage.
While Kansas City is winless, they’ve been in every contest. Last week Philadelphia spoiled the Chiefs’ night with a last minute touchdown toss from Mike Kafka, beating KC 20-17. But the Chiefs arguably outperformed the Eagles and led for most of the second half. The running game was especially productive for the Chiefs, rushing for 168 yards on 36 carries. And rookie do-everything running back Dexter McCluster has shown signs of stardom.
The Chiefs went winless last preseason and I expect the players and coaches to do everything they can to avoid a similar fate this year. While starters don’t usually play extended minutes in the final preseason game, I look for quarterback Matt Cassell to get a decent number of snaps, with backup Tyler Palko getting a lot of action, too. Brodie Croyle has finally recovered from an arm injury, was able to practice this past week, and might see some limited action. The running backs – Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, McCluster, and Jackie Battle – should have a successful night against a depleted Green Bay defense. Packers coach Mike McCarthy is not concerned about winning this game while the Chiefs as an organization are. Kansas City has the edge here. Consider fading the public favorite Packers and following the Chiefs to a payday.
