Boston Celtics AT Philadelphia 76ers
December 09, 2010 8:05 EST
Opening Betting Line:  Boston Celtics -5
Current Betting Line:  Boston Celtics -5.5
Current total: 190
Current Moneyline:  Boston -200 / Philadelphia 170

Boston enters tonight’s game on fire.  They are riding an eight game winning streak in which they have defeated Denver, New Jersey, Chicago, Portland, Cleveland, Toronto, New Jersey, and Atlanta.  Their last loss was November 21st, by one point, to Toronto.  Philadelphia has picked up their play recently.  After starting the season 2-9, they since have won five of their last ten games, including the last two.  Moreover, six of their seven wins this year have been at home, and their home record is a respectable 6-4.  Boston is 7-3 on the road and is #1 in the Eastern Conference with a 17-4 record.  They are 13-2 against the Eastern Conference.

NBA Oddsmakers have set the line close on this one, and if you follow the logic in the following paragraphs, you’ll grasp why, as a mere comparison of records does not tell the whole story for these two teams.

The total has gone OVER in four of Boston’s last six road games, and Boston is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 matchups against Philly.  Moreover, they are 9-1-1 ATS over the last 11 games in Philadelphia.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 11 games, including having gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 home games.

Boston, as you would expect is both a great defensive team and a good offensive one.  They shoot a league high field goal percentage of 51.1% and average 101 points per game while holding opponents to an anemic 91.9 points per game.  Philadelphia, despite their poor record of 7-14 has only a -0.5 point differential, as they average 98.3 and give up 98.8.  This statistic would suggest that Philadelphia is a better team than their record indicates and that as the season goes on, their win % will steadily approach .500.  They have scored just 10 points fewer than their opponents.  Moreover, they have won their last five games at home.

Some Key matchups for tonight’s game:

Rajon Rondo vs. Jrue Holiday

This matchup of speedy point guards promises to be an exciting one.  Both are capable defenders and will seek to frustrate one another on the offensive end, but both are also excellent playmakers capable of creating for themselves and for their teammates.  Holiday enters the game averaging 13.4 points per game and 7.0 assists per game.  In his last two games he is averaging 15.5 points and 7.0 assists.  Rondo is leading the league in assists with 14.1 a game and he is scoring 11.0 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the floor.  Rondo has has 10 or more assists in 16 of his 18 games and is the obvious key to Boston’s offense.

Paul Pierce vs Andre Iguodala

Pierce, though now 33, is continuing his great play and actually averaging slightly more points per game than last year, with 18.9 on the season.  Perhaps more impressive is the fact that he is shooting over 50% from the floor for the first time in his 13 year NBA career.  Other than a game against New Jersey in which he sat half the game due to it being a blowout, Pierce has scored in double figures in every game this season.  Iguodala is known to be one of the better lockdown wing defenders and will seek to frustrate Pierce on the perimeter.  Pierce, ever one for the pumpfake will attempt to get Iguodala off his feet to draw fouls, but Iguodala doesn’t bite on pump fakes as much as most defenders.

While these two matchups will play a big role in determining the outcome, it is also noteworthy to keep an eye on Garnett and Elton Brand, as the two’s battle inside will play a crucial role as well.  Though Boston’s record is vastly superior to Philadelphia’s, Philly’s recent play and ability to stay in games should keep this one close.