Cincinnati Reds (34-32) AT San Francisco Giants (36-29)
Sunday June 12, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
TV: ESPN
Current Spread: EVEN
Current Total: 7
SP: CIN- Edinson Volquez; SF- Jonathan Sanchez
The Giants have lost 2 out of 3 in this series and will look to go for the split tonight against the Reds. They lost 10-2 on Saturday, however, which means that the cumulative score is now 15 to 5, a blowout if things were scored the way Euro Futbol games are. But thankfully for the Giants, they are not. A win today would make the series a split.
San Francisco, despite their great record, owes it almost entirely to pitching. They rank near the bottom of the league in runs per game (3.5) and BA (.240). They already lost one of their best hitters in catcher Buster Posey and now are going to be without Freddy Sanchez, who is replaced by the deft Bill Hall, a batter with a .224 average. Manager Bruce Bochy likes his versatility, though:
“We need some depth right now and he gives us that at every position in the infield and outfield,” Bochy said. “He has some power, speed, so we’re glad to have him.”
The Reds will send Edinson Volquez to the mound, who returned to the rotation this week and threw a quality game, allowing only 1 run in 7 innings. He was the opening day starter, but had a stint in the minors after struggling early on. Reds manager Dusty Baker attributed the success to better control over his fastball, saying “He was locating his fastball a lot better…That’s the Volquez we knew from before.” Volquez’ still has yet to return to the form he had in 2008 when he was 17-6 with a 3.221 ERA. For this season, Baseball Prospectus projected a 9-7 W-L with a 4.03 ERA. As of right now, Volquez is 4-2 with a 5.74 ERA.
Against San Francisco, Volquez is 2-1 with a 8.31 ERA.
The Giants are countering with Jonathan Sanchez, who is 4-4 with a 3.51 ERA so far this season. He has struggled to keep it in the strike zone and walked 11 in 10 1/3rds innings over his last two starts. He lasted only 5 innings last start, but did record six strikeouts. Against Cincinnati he is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA.
Sanchez had the second best Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the majors last season while recording a 3.07 ERA. Baseball Prospectus says “He’s due to regress…but all the external factors…are in his favor, so the readjustment might be mild.” Their projection for his season is a 10-7 record with a 3.81 ERA, still very respectable and very good, but not quite as impressive as last season.
Some betting trends:
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Reds’ last 6 road games. The Reds are 4-10 SU in their last 14 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 against the San Francisco Giants. The total has also gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 on the road against the Giants.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s 5 games and it has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home. The Giants are 14-7 SU in their last 21 home games and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 8 against the Cincinnati Reds. The total has gone OVER In 4 of the Giants’ last 6 games at home against the Reds.
This should be a good game tonight, as the Giants will come out motivated to avoid losing this series. Sanchez has been great in recent history, so I favor the Giants, although the line is set EVEN as of the time this was written.
