Toronto Raptors AT Chicago Bulls
Tuesday, January 4th, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Line: Chicago -10
Current Line: Chicago -8
Opening Total: 199.5
Curent Total: 200
Opening Moneyline: Chicago -335 / Toronto +285
Current Moneyline: Chicago -420 / Toronto +320
Chicago is riding a 4 game winning streak, but all 4 of those opponents have been sub-.500 teams (Cleveland, New Jersey, Milwaukee, and Detroit), and Chicago is 14-3 at home while Toronto is 4-12 on the road making this NBA Pick a blowout according to Vegas oddsmakers. Toronto has struggled all year and has won but 3 of their last 10. They’ve been without their leading scorer, Andrea Bargnani, but others have stepped up on offense and it hasn’t made a difference, because their defense is one of the worst in the league. They give up 104.4 per game.
Oddly enough, Toronto is the only team to hold Derrick Rose below 10 points this season. He still had 11 assists, and Chicago won handily, but it was a positive for the Raptors, as their defense – especially at point guard – has been weak. Boozer battered them that night for 34 points and 12 boards, and we can expect more of the same since the Raptors have no one on the interior to block shots, or box out and rebound.
Some betting trends:
Toronto has lost 5 of their past 6 and are 1-4-1 ATS in those games. The total has gone OVER in 14 of their last 21 road games and they are 2-6 on the road in their last 8. They have won 5 of the last 7 against Chicago, and 3 in a row. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against Chicago and 4 of the last 5 in Chicago.
Chicago has won 13 of their past 15 games and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago’s last 6 games and they have won 9 of their last 10 at home. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 at home against Toronto.
Key Matchups:
Jerryd Bayless / Jose Calderon (questionable) vs. Derrick Rose
Both Bayless and Calderon are day to day, but Bayless is more likely than Calderon and you have to figure Toronto will find a way to get at least one of them on the court, or they will be punished even harder by Rose. Rose is going to come out focused on avenging his poor performance last game against Toronto and a focused Rose is all the better for the Bulls. Calderon is a great distributor and Bayless is quick, but both are outmatched against All-Star Derrick Rose.
Amir Johnson (questionable, but played last game) vs. Carlos Boozer
As alluded to earlier, Boozer tore up the Raptors last game between the teams. He will probably continue that domiance, though Amir Johnson is a good shot blocker and decent defender. He simply won’t be able to keep Boozer from getting to the basket from his place on the top of the key. Even if he is able to prevent a lot of Boozer shots, Boozer is an adept passer and will be able to create for his Bull teammates.
As NBA oddsmakers have indicated, tonight’s matchup probably won’t be close. Six raptors are injured (Bargnani, Bayless, Calderon, Reggie Evans, Peja Stojakovic, Amir Johnson, and Sonny Weems) and of those six, three are locks NOT to play.
