ACC Championship Game
Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tarheels
Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
Sunday, March 13, 2011, 1:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Duke -3
Current Line: Duke -3 1/2
Opening Total: 144 1/2
Current Total: 145 1/2
Money Line: Duke -170 / UNC +150
Either Duke or North Carolina has won the ACC tournament championship 13 out of the last 14 years. In fact at least one of them has made the final for 14 straight years. Surprisingly, these two long time rivals haven’t played in the championship against each other since 2001. The stakes are a little higher this year as the winner will likely claim a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament next week. Duke is 29-4 overall and finished second in the ACC with a 13-3 record. They are ranked #5 in both polls. Duke has breezed into this championship game by beating Maryland 87-71 in the quarters and Virginia Tech 77-63 in the semifinals. Despite being questionable with a toe injury, Nolan Smith led Duke with 27 points and 6 assists in the win against the Hokies. North Carolina is 26-6 overall and won the ACC regular season title with a 14-2 record. Since losing at Duke 79-73 February 9 North Carolina has won 9 straight games. They beat Duke at home last Saturday night to close out the regular season and clinch the ACC title 81-67. In the ACC tournament North Carolina has struggled to start games putting themselves in holes that they had to dig themselves out of. They were down 19 to Miami in the quarterfinals before coming back to win on a last second lay-up 61-59 for their only lead of the game. Yesterday in the semifinals, Carolina was down 14 to Clemson before coming back and forcing overtime. The Tarheels won 92-87. Harrison Barnes scored 40 points for the Tarheels.
This is the 11th time Duke and Carolina have played in the ACC Championship Game. UNC is 6-4 in those games. Duke is 11-8 all time against the Tarheels in ACC tournament play. The teams have split their last 6 meetings overall both straight up and against the spread. Five of those six games have gone under the total. North Carolina is 10-3 ATS versus conference teams with winning records this season. Duke is 40-28 ATS as a favorite the last 2 seasons.
Duke has been playing without guard Kyrie Irving since early December who is out with a foot injury. Duke has two other players besides Irving who are averaging double digit scoring. Senior guard Nolan Smith is averaging 21.1 points to lead the team, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists to lead the team, and 1.3 steals. Smith is the ACC player of the year. Forward Kyle Singler is averaging 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 steal a game. Guard Seth Curry averages 9.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.4 steals a game to lead the team off the bench. He also shoot 43.4% from 3 point range. Guard Andre Dawkins averages 8 points and 1.9 rebounds a game. Mason Plumlee leads the team in rebounds with 8.8 a game and blocks with 1.7 a game. Duke is outscoring opponents 81-65 on the season. The Blue Devils are shooting 47.3% from the field and 37.6% from 3-point range. Duke opponents are shooting 40.1% from the field. Duke makes 75.4% of their free throws. The Blue Devils average 37.2 rebounds a game and have a rebounding margin of +3. The Devils average 14 assists and 11.7 turnovers a game. Duke forces 14.6 turnovers a game on defense. Duke averages 4.2 blocks and 7.3 steals a game.
North Carolina point guard Larry Drew II left the team a few weeks ago after losing his starting job. Drew averaged 3.9 assists a game and 4.4 points a game. Forward Tyler Zeller is the leading scorer for the Tarheels with 14.5 points a game. He also averages 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a game. Forward Harrison Barnes averages 14.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.4 assists a game. Forward John Henson leads the team in rebounds with 9.8 a game and blocks with 3.2 a game. He also averages 11.3 points a game. Dexter Strickland leads the team in steals with 1.2 a game. Point Guard Kendall Marshall leads the team in assists with 5.7 a game. UNC is outscoring opponents 77-68. The Tarheels are shooting 45.3% from the field and 33.5% from 3-point range. Tarheel opponents are shooting 40.1% from the field. The Tarheels struggle from the free throw line converting only 66.3% from the line. North Carolina averages 42.5 rebounds a game and has a rebounding margin of +6.5. They lead the nation in rebounding. They average 15.6 assists and 13.4 turnovers a game. They force 14.3 turnovers a game on defense. Carolina averages 6.2 steals and 5.3 blocks a game.
The first time these two teams played in Durham, North Carolina was up by 15 in the second half before Duke came back to win by 6. North Carolina dominated the second match-up last week in Chapel Hill winning by 14. Now they play the rubber match in nearby Greensboro which is about an hour from both campuses. The crowd should be raucous with fans from both teams filling the Greensboro Coliseum. I expect a close game that should come down to the wire.
Our college basketball handicappers are red hot in 2011. Don’t miss out on any more winners from now until they Cut down the nets in Houston next month.
