Dallas Mavericks AT New Orleans Hornets
Mar 9, 2011 at 8:00 PM EST
Opening Line:  Dallas -3.5
Current Line:  Dallas -4.5
Opening Total:  189.5
Current Total:  189.5
Opening Moneyline:  Dallas -205 / N.O. +175
Current Moneyline:  Dallas -200 / N.O. +170

Chris Paul has been out of action for the Hornets, and it has shown how reliant the team is on their All-Star point guard.  He sustained a concussion that has left him unable to engage in basketball related activities and New Orleans is not rushing him back.

“I know he’s in some pain,” Hornets coach Monty Williams said Monday. “You don’t take a hit like that and not be in some pain, but people don’t realize how tough that kid is. He’s played through pain all year long, with his knee and his hip. … He takes falls all the time, but last night was a different scenario. I almost have to be the uncle/father/brother, and just say, ‘Look, dude, you’re not playing tonight.’”

It now, more than ever, makes sense that the Hornets traded for Jarrett Jack.  They knew they were a Chris Paul injury away from certain doom, but with Jack they still stand a chance of righting the ship while Paul is out.  Jack led the team in scoring in the absense of Paul with 23 points, but his 3:5 A/TO ratio was disgusting, and he is not the distrubutor that Paul is in any sense whatsoever.  Jack is going to have to find a way to involve his teammates if New Orleans is to be able to beat the Mavericks without their best player.  David West must also step up.

Some betting trends:

Dallas is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games and the total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas’ last 12 games.  Dallas is 19-2 SU in their last 21 games and the total has gone OVER in 9 of their last 11 on the road.  Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 6 games against the Hornets.  Dallas is 4-8 SU in their last 12 against New Orleans and they are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Hornets.  The total has gone OVER in 7 of the last 10 road games against New Orleans.  Dallas is 0-5 SU in their last 5 on the road against the Hornets and the Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Hornets on the road.

New Orleans is 5-11 SU in their last 16 games and they are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.  The total has gone UNDER in 7f of New Orleans’s last 8 games and they are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home.  New Orleans is 12-6 SU in their last 18 at home and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 8 home games and the total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 against the Mavericks.  New Orleans is 8-4 SU in their last 12 against Dallas and they are 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Dallas.  The total has gone OVER In 7 of New Orleans’  last 10 games at home against Dallas.

Key Matchups:

Jason Kidd vs. Jarrett Jack

As previously mentioned, Jack will start in place of Chris Paul.  He’s capable of scoring a lot, and he is also a decent facilitator, though he is often criticized for making a good number of poor decisions on offense.  He averages 4 assists per game over his career, in an average of 27 minutes per game.

Kidd is a master craftsman at point and is 5th all time in three pointers made.  He doesn’t offer a lot scoring-wise, especially at this point in his career, but he is still a top point guard in the league.  His numbers are down a little from last year, but are comparable to his numbers from 08-09.  Over two-thirds of his field goal attempts are three point shots, so it’s easy to determine what he does on offense when he isn’t creating for others.

Dirk Nowitzki vs. David West

West knows he needs to step up his scoring in the absense of Chris Paul, but he struggled badly against the Bulls, going just 4 of 17 from the field and scoring only 11 points.  He won’t be able to relax on defense against Nowitzki, so it’s going to take a strong effort from West who is outmatched against the much taller and longer Dirk Nowitzki.  Dirk is a legit 7 footer and West is about 6’8″  Neither Nowitzki or West are great rebounders.  Dirk is averaging the lowest rebounds he has since his second year in the league and West is only at about 7.6 a game as well.

Tonight’s game should be good, even without Paul.  The Hornets are tough at home and Jarrett Jack is a decent replacement at point.  Dallas obviously has the upper hand talent wise, but sometimes that isn’t enough.