Tampa Bay Rays (1-8) at Boston Red Sox (2-7)
April 11, 2011 at 7:10 PM EST, TV: ESPN
Opening Runline:  BOS -1.5 +135, TAM +1.5 -155
Current Runline:  BOS -1.5 +125, TAM +1.5 -145
Opening Moneyline:  BOS -155, TAM +135
Current Moneyline:  BOS -151, TAM +141
Opening Total:  9
Current Total:  9.5

SP:  TAM- J. Hellickson, BOS- D. Matsuzaka

What a matchup this is:  The two favorites to win the AL East are currently occupying the cellar, with Boston only one game ahead of the Rays for the worst record in the division.

Tampa Bay’s Carl Crawford recently switched sides of the fence and now plays for the division rival Red Sox.  Crawford is the Tampa franchise leader in hits, runs, RBIs, doubles, triples, and stolen bases.  The face of the franchise signed for seven years with the Red Sox.  The addition of Crawford, as well as Adrian Gonzalez, was supposed to make Boston contend for a Pennant.  Right now they’re not even part of the race.

“Before the season even starts you tell in your mind ‘World Series, postseason, all that stuff’ with Boston,” Crawford said after signing with the Red Sox in December. “You know it actually might happen.”

So far, things have not been so great though.  The Red Sox began the year 0-6 and then finally won 2 of 3 against the Yankees.  And though the Rays may miss Crawford, he hasn’t made a difference for Boston yet.  He’s batting .132 on the year and went 0 for 5 on Sunday.

The Rays plight, however, is pretty bad too.  The Rays have scored only 11 runs through their eight losses and lost badly in a 6-1 defeat to the White Sox on Sunday.

“If something goes wrong for a brief moment why would I want to all of a sudden change my attitude?” Rays manager Joe Maddon asked. “I really believe in what we do. I believe in the guys in that room. I believe it’s gonna turn. It’s really more glaring when it happens early in the season, which it is.”

Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson lost his season opener on Wednesday against the LA Angels.  He gave up 3 runs in 5 2/3rds innings in a 5-1 Rays loss.  His last appearance with Boston he allowed three runs in 1 2/3rds innings.  Hellickson’s PECOTA projections are a 9-6 record with a 3.55 ERA.

“Dice K” Daisake Matsuzaka will take the mound for the Red Sox.  He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings in Wednesday’s 8-4 loss against the Cleveland Indians.  Against Tampa Bay, Matsuzaka has not been so successful, with a 2-6 record and 5.09 ERA.  PECOTA expects an 11-9 record with a 4.22 ERA.  Matsuzaka has not been the same since 2008 when he had a 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA, as one of the premier pitchers in the league.

Some betting trends:

Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games and the total has gone UNDER in 19 of their last 22 games.  The total has also gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 on the road and the total has gone OVER in 8 of their last 12 against the Boston Red Sox.  Tampa is 7-3 SU in their last 10 against Boston and the total has gone OVER In 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games on the road in Boston.  Tampa Bay is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games on the road against the Red Sox.

Boston is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games and the total has gone OVER In 9 of Boston’s last 13 games.  The total has also gone OVER in 5 of their last 6 at home and they are 1-4 SU In their last 5 at home.  Boston is 3-7 SU in their last 10 against Tampa and the total has gone OVER In 8 of the last 12 games between the teams.  The total has gone OVER In 5 of Boston’s last 5 games at home against the Rays and the Red Sox are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games at home against the Rays.

HOT HITTERS:

TAMPA BAY:

BJ Upton:  .290 BA (9 of 31), 4 RBIs, 1 SB, 5 runs

BOSTON:

Dustin Pedroia: .400 BA (14 of 35), 1 HR, 5 RBI, 3 doubles, .571 Slugging Pct

David Ortiz: .257 BA (9 of 35), 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 doubles, .486 Slugging Pct.

Boston has been bad historically against Tampa, but the Rays are without Evan Longoria and the Red Sox also just took their face of the franchise in Carl Crawford.  The Rays supporting players have not been getting the job done but with Matsuzaka on the mound, whom the Rays have had success, the Red Sox are going to have a problem.  If Matsuzaka falters, he may be replaced early.