Game 7: Memphis Grizzlies AT Oklahoma City Thunder
May 15, 2011 at 3:30 PM EST
Opening Line: OKC -6
Current Line: OKC -6.5
Opening Moneyline: OKC -300, MEM +250
Current Moneyline: OKC -315, MEM +255
Opening Total: 193
Current Total: 191.5
Series Tied 3-3
After six games, the winning team has not won by any less than 8 points, and if NBA Oddsmakers are correct, today might not be an exception. The Thunder, who lost game six by 12 points find themselves as 6.5 point favorites tonight in the final decisive game seven.
Zach Randolph had his first strong game of the series since Game 1, going 12 of 22 from the floor en route to 30 points. He also grabbed 13 rebounds. “We know what we’re playing for,” Randolph said. “We know it’s the last game, and we know whoever wins this game goes to the next round, goes to the finals. So, it’s going to be different.”
Kevin Durant didn’t fare quite as well. He set his personal worst for playoff points, scoring only 11 points. “It was tough,” Durant said. “That’s a part of this league. It’s going to happen. “Especially being one of the main guys, I tend to take a lot of the pressure and put it on myself. But it is what it is. I’ve got to fight through it, I’ve got to continue to be positive around my guys and go from there.”
Durant knows if he remains focused he is unlikely to have another game that bad, but it was mostly due to great Memphis defense — not poor play by Durant. Tony Allen and Sam Young, both very undersized to cover the 6’11” Durant, have both done great jobs on him this series, using pesky defense to frustrate the physically gifted Durant.
Scott Brooks is not worried about Durant having a repeat performance…“I have no concern with Kevin. That guy is a winner,” Brooks said. “I believe in him, I believe in what he’s about and these are the games that everybody dreams about. You don’t get a lot of times you can play a Game 7.”
Lionel Hollins made an adjustment that paid dividends in game 6. With the Thunder “packing the paint,” Hollins found that the offensively challenged Sam Young was not the best answer at shooting guard/small forward and instead opted to go with sharpshooter O.J. Mayo. Mayo responded by going 6 of 12 from the field and 2 of 4 from three point range while playing 39 minutes (4 of Memphis’ 5 starters played 39+ minutes). For a player that hasn’t been coveted by his team and is expected to sign elsewhere this summer, it was a fortuitous change of events.
Randolph loved the change. “You can feel it. You ain’t got nobody in your lap,” Randolph said. “You can see a little bit, so you definitely felt a difference.”
Tony Allen knows what it is like to play in game 7s. In his days with the Celtics, he appeared in 5 games 7s. “When you win, you want to be seen everywhere. You like that pat on the back, you like that acknowledgment of you being a winner,” Allen remarked. “You lose, you think about what you could’ve did. That’s the pain of regret. But get the win, that’s the pain of working hard.”
Some betting trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis’ last 9 games and the Grizzlies are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games. The Grizzlies are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road and the total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis’ last 8 games on the road. The total has also gone OVER in 8 of the last 11 games against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Memphis is 7-17-1 ATS on the road in OKC and the total has gone OVER in 8 of the last 9 games on the road in OKC. The Grizzlies are 7-18 SU in their last 25 against the Thunder in OKC.
OKC is 17-7 SU in their last 24 games and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home. The total has gone OVER in 8 of OKC’s last 11 games against the Memphis Grizzlies while the Thunder are 18-7 SU in their last 25 home games against the Grizzlies. The total has gone OVER in 8 of OKC’s last 9 games against the Grizziles.
It’s somewhat strange to see the spread at 6+ points in a game 7. The advantage clearly does go to the home team, the Thunder, but the Grizzlies defense is going to keep the game close.
