Miami Heat AT Dallas Mavs
June 5, 2011 at 8 PM EST
Opening Line: DAL -3
Current Line: DAL -2
Opening Total: 187.5
Current Total: 188
Opening Moneyline: DAL -135; MIA +115
Current Moneyline: DAL -130; MIA +110
Series Tied 1-1
The Mavericks came back to tie the best of seven one game all last game, but aren’t taking for granted what Wade simple calls “one [we let] go.” Wade certainly couldn’t blame himself after a 36 point outburst in which he shot 12 free throws (connecting on 8). The Dallas shooting guards Deshawn Stevenson and Jason Terry combined to go 8 of 15 from the floor for 25 points, but it was Wade’s offense that carried Miami, while the Dallas frontline more or less carried the Mavs.
Dirk Nowitzki (24 pts), Shawn Marion (20) and Tyson Chandler (13) accounted for well over half the Mavs’ points (57 of 95). Usual bench spark J.J. Barea provided next to nothing, scoring only 5.
Perhaps the real story so far of the series, however, is the job Shawn Marion has done on Miami superstar LeBron James. While James did hit half his shots (8 of 15), Marion matched him tit-for-tat, going 9 of 14 from the floor en route to a James-matching 20 points.
LeBron James took a level headed and reasonable approach to the loss. “In the playoffs, it’s a win or a loss. However it comes by, it’s a win or a loss,” James remarked. “We’ve moved on from Game 2, seen the mistakes we’ve made. Seen some of the great things we’ve done as well. It’s a win or loss. The series is tied 1-1. We never get too high or too low in the series. We haven’t gotten too high or low in the regular season as well.”
Since the NBA has gone to the 2-3-2 format, the teams have split the first two games 12 times. In 11 of those times, the game 3 winner has went on to win the series. So both teams cannot underestimate the importance of this game. It’s far from being lablelled a “must win,” but should it be?
Dirk Nowitzki realizes one advantage the Mavs have: home court. “We just can’t let up. We’re not good enough to just relax.” The German demi-god said. “We need to play with an edge at all times in every game. So hopefully (Sunday), with the crowd behind us, we’re going to have a great game. Just looking at this one game.”
Even without homecourt, Miami has bounced back strong from defeats since March, a span over which they have NOT lost back to back games, and in their retaliation game they are winning by an average of 11.7 points per game. They have also won 17 of their last 24 on the road, so winning tonight would be in-line with that success. Even though Udonis Haslem missed most of the season, he sure did not miss what made the Heat successful enough to win 58 games:
“We’ve been a pretty resilient bunch all year,” the former Billy Donovan product remarked. “We’ve bounced back every time we’ve been knocked down. I’m expecting the same thing with this situation.
Dallas has won 12 of the last 14 matchups in Dallas but that was done before the Heat coalesced their big 3 and became the team they have become. In previous years, it was Wade alone who answered for the Heat, as he waited with baited breath for his plan to come together of having LeBron and Bosh join him in red and black uniforms.
LeBron James simply says he’s “excited.”
“We had time to let it hurt as much as it could….We’re a confident bunch. Me, personally, I’m looking forward to the challenge. It’s going to be fun.”
And isn’t “having fun” what the NBA is all about? We knew the Heat would be good, but this fast? And Dirk Nowitzki isn’t going to roll over. He’s played through the pain of a twisted finger and continued to play well, but for the Mavs to win, it’s ordinarily going to take 30+ from Nowitzki. They can’t count on the aged Shawn Marion for 20 every night…
Some betting trends:
Miami is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 on the road. The Heat are 9-3 SU in their last 12 road games and the Heat are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games in Dallas. Miami is 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 against the Mavs and the total has gone OVER In 4 of their last 6 against Dallas on the road. The Heat are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road against the Mavs.
Dallas is 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games and they are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Mavs’ last 5 games at home and they are 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games. The Mavs are 11-1 SU in their last 12 against the Heat and the total has gone OVER in 4 of the last 6 against Miami. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of their last 9 home games against the Heat and Dallas is 5-0 SU in their last 5 home games against Miami. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Heat.
With the way Marion has controlled James, it may be in Wade’s hands to have another huge night. Deshawn Stevenson and Jason Terry are both unable to guard him and he needs to seek to get to the basket as much as possible to maximize that advantage. Bosh has done a fair job on Dirk, but there’s really no answer defensively for most of the shots that Nowitzki attempts. Fading away off the “wrong” foot from 20 feet leaning to your left – is not a high quality shot – and yet Dirk makes them look coordinated and natural and hits them with regularity.
