Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Sunday, 12/4/11, 1:00 PM EST, TV: CBS
Opening Point Spread: New England -20.5
Current Betting Line: New England -20
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 47.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Indianapolis is the only team in the NFL without a win and will be facing the New england Patriots for the 12th time since the 2003 campaign Sunday afternoon. The Colts are making a move at quarterback, starting Dan Orlovsky in place of Curtis Painter, who came into this week with a the second-lowest passer rating in the league. It will be his first start under center since the 2008 season and only the eighth start of his seven-year career. Indianapolis ranks 31st in the league in gaining just 280 yards per game. Over the course of the season, the team is 2-9 ATS and the ‘over’ is 6-4 in those contests.
The Colts are 5-6 in their last 11 meetings in this series, dropping those games by an average of 3.7 points per game. Indianapolis has actually won five of the last seven meetings, but will obviously be without star quarterback Peyton Manning. Offensively, the team has managed to score just 29 points and gain 721 yards of combined offense in the past three games. On the defensive end, Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney will need to create pressure of the edge.
New England sits atop the AFC East standings and has won three consecutive games since suffering a two-game lose streak after the bye. The Patriots have tallied an NFL-best 37-5 record in the month of December since the 2001 season, including an 18-1 mark when playing inside Gillette Stadium. Quarterback Tom Brady has tallied an 8-4 record when facing Indianapolis, including a 2-1 mark in the playoffs. New England is 7-4 ATS on the season and the ‘over’ is 6-5 in those contests.
The Patriots offense currently ranks second in the NFL in total yards, while averaging 30.1 points per game, which would be third-best in team history if the season ended today. New England certainly relies on Brady in throwing the football, but the running game has really come on during the team’s win streak, averaging 107 yards per game over that stretch. It’s a welcomed change from an offensive game plan that managed just 74.5 yards per contest during its last losing streak. Success shouldn’t be a problem Sunday in facing a defense that ranks last in giving up 29.7 points per game.
Bettors will likely back the Colts due to their 10-3 ATS mark as a underdog of 10.5 or more points, while the Patriots are 3-13 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more points.
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