In most sports, there is a difference between the teams I like and the teams that are ultimately going to win it all. That’s occasionally frustrating, but I am used to it by now. This is definitely the case in college basketball. The difference with that sport, though, is that teams can have an excellent tournament run without winning it all. For some teams a single win is more than they could hope for. For others, the Sweet Sixteen would be an amazing accomplishment. Because of the different expectations, I spend far more time at this time of year worrying about teams that are going to have good tournament runs for them than I do worrying about who is ultimately going to cut down the nets. Here are five teams that I expect big things from when the Madness gets going:

1. Xavier. What’s not to like about this team? They have won ten in a row in a solid conference. They have beaten some decent teams along the way (Indiana, Creighton, Kansas State, Virginia, Auburn). They are rounding into form, with three covers in a row after a rough ATS stretch. They have ridiculous depth, and they don’t have to rely on just one or two players – five players average between 10.5 and 11.6 ppg. They can score and they can defend. The Musketeers are too highly ranked to sneak up on anyone this year, but they are going to do some damage.

2. Louisville. I have had my heart broken by the Cards in the past, but I’m back for more this year. I think that Louisville is playing as well as any team in the country right now. They have had a ridiculously tough schedule down the stretch, but they didn’t lose in February, and they only failed to cover once. They are playing ridiculously good defense, they are choosing their shots well, and they are playing together as well as they ever have. Pitino has a deep run in him this year. He’s been there before, and he’s got to be very hungry to get back.

3. Davidson. The Wildcats were a big story last year, but they have faded into relative obscurity after getting beat up several times in the non-conference season. I think that forgetting about them is a huge mistake. They haven’t lost a conference game. That means that they haven’t lost in 2008. Just look at the teams that they played earl – UCLA, Duke, North Carolina. Sure, they lost all three, but that’s fearless scheduling, and it did more to toughen up this team than anything else could have. Besides, they covered all three, so they exceeded expectations. Stephen Curry is among a small handful of the best players in the country, and the team is deep. They could be as least as much of a story this year as they were last year.

4. Memphis. I have been on this bandwagon since John Calipari went to the land of Elvis, and I am still all aboard. Calipari has a smart, talented team, and he is going to make sure that they learn a ton from that Tennessee game. They just didn’t stay sharp in the last 25 minutes, but they have the real ability to. Derrick Rose gets better every time he hits the court, and Chris Douglas-Roberts steps up when he has to. I am at least as optimistic about this team as I was ten days ago.

5. UCLA. As much as I like Memphis, UCLA is my favorite to win it all right now. They can score, their defense has risen to a new level of brilliance lately, and they have Ben Howland. Plus Kevin Love is a freak. Howland aims for March (and April), and he is right on target again.

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