#16 Nebraska Cornhuskers at UCLA Bruins
Saturday, September 8, 2012, 7:50 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Opening Line: Nebraska -4
Current Line: Nebraska -5
Opening Total: 55 1/2
Current Total: 62 1/2
Opening Money Line: Nebraska -215 / UCLA +185
Current Money Line: Nebraska -230 / UCLA +190

The #16 Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to meet the UCLA Bruins Saturday night in the Rose Bowl. This will be the 11th meeting all time between the schools, but the first since 1994. Nebraska leads the overall series 6-4, but UCLA is 3-2 in Los Angeles. The Cornhuskers have won 6 of the last 7 in the series dating back to 1973.

Nebraska is coached by Bo Pelini. The Cornhuskers opened the season at home against Southern Miss. Nebraska was a 20.5 point favorite and the total was 51.5. The Cornhuskers jumped out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Golden Eagles tied it up. Nebraska then took a 21-14 lead and never relinquished it. Southern Miss pulled within 21-17, but then the Huskers scored 21 unanswered points to put the game out of reach. Nebraska ended up winning 49-20 in a rout.

Nebraska held Southern Miss to 260 total yards including 75 passing yards. Seven of the 20 points Southern Miss scored came on a 100 yard kickoff return. Southern Miss lost a fumble for the only turnover of the game.

The Cornhuskers racked up 632 yards including 354 passing yards from quarterback Taylor Martinez. Martinez was 26/34 passing with 5 touchdowns. No Husker receiver had more than 70 yards receiving but 8 had at least 26 yards. Five different receivers caught a touchdown. Ameer Abdullah had 15 carries for 81 yards, along with 4 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown. Rex Burkhead had 3 carries for 68 yards and a touchdown. He sprained his left knee and is questionable against UCLA. Receiver and kick returner Tim Marlowe is out with a broken clavicle. Braylon Heard also had a rushing touchdown.

UCLA coach Jim Mora, Jr. made his debut as Bruins coach last week on the road at Rice. The Bruins were 16.5 point favorites and the total was 60. UCLA jumped out to a 19-0 lead, but Rice came back with 17 unanswered points. UCLA expanded their lead to 29-17. Rice scored another touchdown to pull within 29-24, but wouldn’t score again. UCLA recovered a fumble with 17 seconds left in the first half and ran it back 44 yards for a touchdown. UCLA scored 5 touchdowns in the first half, but 3 of the 5 extra points the Bruins attempted were blocked. UCLA took a 35-24 lead at halftime. Neither team scored in the third quarter, but UCLA scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to cover the spread 49-24.

The Bruins gave up 358 total yards to the Owls, including 174 rushing yards. Each team had two turnovers. UCLA had 8 penalties for 107 yards.

UCLA had 646 total yards including 343 rushing yards. UCLA had 3 touchdown runs of 72 yards or more in the first half. Freshman quarterback Brett Hundley was 21/28 passing for 202 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. He also had 7 carries for 68 yards with a touchdown run of 72 yards. Running back Johnathan Franklin had a monster day with 15 carries for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns. Seven Bruin receivers had at least 22 yards, but no one had more than 53.

The Cornhuskers are 4-0-1 ATS after passing for over 280 yards, 4-1 after scoring 40 points or more, 24-49-2 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 12-26-1 after allowing 275 yards or less, 4-9 after a straight up win, 3-8-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 1-3-1 in road games, 1-4 after a cover, 1-4-1 on grass, and 0-3-1 in road games against teams with winning records.

The Bruins are 5-2 ATS after gaining more than 450 yards, 7-16 overall, and 7-19 on grass, 1-4 in non-conference games, 1-6 after a cover, 1-8 after a  straight up win, and after rushing for 200 yard or more.

This line doesn’t make sense to me. I know Burkhead and Marlowe are two key components of the Husker attack, but just because UCLA crushed a terrible Rice team on the road doesn’t mean the Bruins are all of a sudden a great team. Hundley had a great game last week, but is still a freshman. I also don’t see Franklin rushing for 200 yards like he did last week. I think Nebraska should realistically be a double digit favorite even without Burkhead. Lay the points with the Huskers.

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