West Virginia Mountaineers vs Maryland Terrapins
M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, Maryland
Saturday, September 21, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Maryland -4 1/2
Current Line: Maryland -5
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 53
Opening Money Line: Maryland -220 / West Virginia +185
Current Money Line: Maryland -195 / West Virginia +165

The 3-0 Maryland Terrapins take on the 2-1 West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday in Baltimore. The two border rivals are meeting for the 50th time. West Virginia leads the series 26-21-2, and this is only the second meeting at a neutral site. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in the series, including 31-21 in Morgantown last year.

West Virginia is coached by Dana Holgorsen. The Mountainners have home wins over William & Mary 24-17 and last week against Georgia State 41-7. West Virginia lost 16-7 at Oklahoma. The Mountaineers are 1-2 ATS and all three games have gone under the total. The Mountaineers jumped out to a 17-0 lead at halftime. Georgia St got on the board early in the third to make it 17-7. West Virginia scored the last 24 points of the game to win 41-7  but the Mountaineers were unable to cover the large 41 point spread. The game went under the 56.5 point total.

West Virginia cranked out 604 total yards against the Panthers including 359 passing yards and 245 rushing yards. The Mountaineers held the Panthers to 220 total yards including 84 passing yards. Each team turned the ball over once, but Georgia St had 7 penalties.

West Virginia is outscoring teams 24-13.3 this season. The Mountaineers are averaging 466.7 yards per game on offense, including 195.3 rushing yards. On defense, West Virginia is allowing 321.3 total yards per game, including 136.7 passing yards. The Mountaineers are #8 in pass defense nationally and #16 in points allowed. West Virginia is even in turnovers with 6 takeaways. The Mountaineers are averaging 54.7 penalty yards per game. WVU is 15/44 on third and fourth down conversions. West Virginia has allowed 5 sacks and forced 5 sacks as well. The Mountaineers are 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns.

West Virginia quarterback Paul Millard started the first two games but was largely ineffective. He was benched in favor of freshman Ford Childress for the Georgia State game. Childress threw for 359 yards on 25/41 passing with 3 touchdowns and a pick. Childress will start against Maryland. Running back Charles Sims has 52 carries, 293 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 48 yards. Dreamius Smith has 27 carries, 177 yards and 2 touchdowns. Wendell Smallwood has 17 carries, 109 yards and a touchdown, along with 2 catches for 24 yards. Receiver Ronald Carswell has 8 catches, 184 yards and a touchdown. Daikiel shorts has 12 catches, 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ivan McCartney has 7 catches, 107 yards and a touchdown. Kevin White, K.J. Myers, Devonte Mathis, and Mario Alford will also get significant catches. Nine Mountaineer defensive players are listed on the injury report including 6 linebackers.

Maryland, coached by Randy Edsall, has blowout wins at home over Florida International 43-10 and Old Dominion 47-10. Last week, the Terrapins won at Connecticut 32-21. Maryland  is 3-0 ATS and the total is 2-1. The Terps were 4.5 point favorites at UConn Saturday and the total was 47.

The Huskies jumped out to a 7-0 first quarter lead. Maryland took a 10-7 lead in the second on a 41 yard touchdown run from quarterback C.J. Brown, and a 29 yard field goal. UConn tied it up at 10-10 with a field goal with 4 minutes to go in the second. Maryland took a 13-10 lead on a 21 yard field goal as time expired for halftime. Maryland outscored UConn 14-3 in the 3rd on a touchdown pass from Brown and a 43 yard pick six to take a 27-13 lead. The Terps would add a safety and a field goal in the fourth to go up 32-13, UConn would add a late touchdown and a two point conversion to pull within 32-21. Neither team would score again. Maryland had 501 total yards including 224 rushing yards. The Huskies had 383 total yards but just 34 rushing yards. Maryland overcame 3 turnovers and forced 2 of their own.

Maryland is outscoring teams 40.7-13.7 this season. The Terrapins are averaging 554.7 yards per game including 262.3 rushing yards per game. The Terrapins are #10 nationally in total offense. Maryland is allowing 293.3 yards per game on defense including 96.7 rushing ayrds per game. The Terrapins are #18 or better in both categories. Maryland is +1 in turnovers with 7 takeaways. The Terps are 15/45 on third and fourth down conversions. Maryland has forced 15 sacks this season. Maryland is 12/12 scoring in the red zone with 6 touchdowns.

Maryland quarterback C.J. Brown is 49/73 passing (67.1%) for 833 yards with 6 touchdowns and a pick. He also has 31 carries for 257 yards and 5 touchdowns. Running back  Brandon Ross has 46 carries, 265 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 34 yards. Albert Reid has 21 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Stefon Diggs has 16 catches, 387 yards and 3 scores. Deon Long has 15 catches, 173 yards and a touchdown. Fourteen Terrapins are listed as questionable, doubtful or out, including 6 defensive players.

West Virginia is 7-3 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 6-13 against ACC teams, 4-10 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 2-6 on fieldturf, 1-4 in September, after a straight up win of 20 points or more, after allowing 20 points or less, and after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 1-5 in neutral site games, 1-6 after gaining more than 450 total yards, and 0-5 in non-conference games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 in this series. The Mountaineers are 5-1 ATS in the last six against Maryland.

Maryland is 5-0 ATS overall, 4-0 after a straight up win, and in non-conference games, 4-1 after a cover, in September and in neutral site games, 5-2 against teams with winning records, and after gaining more than 450 total yards, 2-5 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and 5-17 after allowing more than 280 passing yards.

Yes, Maryland is 3-0 but they haven’t beaten anybody yet. West Virginia held Oklahoma to only 16 points and is much better on defense this year. The Mountaineers might have solved their offensive woes with the switch to Childress at quarterback but it is hard to tell as he ripped up winless Georgia State. If West Virginia plays better on offense than they did against William & Mary and Oklahoma, then the Mountaineers can pull off the upset in Baltimore in a low scoring game.

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