Time: 8 PM EST, Sat
Spread: IOW -3.5
Total: 42.5
Odds from Bookmaker
After the scandal, the Nittany Lions began the year in disarray and lost their first two games. Since then, however, the story has been quite different.
They followed up the losses to Ohio & Virginia with four wins over Navy, Temple, Illinois, and then the biggest of all, a 39-28 victory over their first AP ranked opponent of the year, then-No. 24 Northwestern.
QB Matt McGloin scored the go-ahead TD with 2:37 to go. It was one of three Penn State TDs in the fourth quarter. McGloin had a monster game, throwing 51 passes (completing 35) for 282 yards and two TDs. 51 passes, and no interceptions. If he can replicate that kind of massive production, the Nittany Lions may be able to pull an upset this week over Iowa, who college football oddsmakers favor by 3.5 points.
McGloin has stepped up his game from his junior season. Last year, he threw for a 56.9 percent completion ratio, but this year he’s up to 61.5 percent. His QB rating has gone up to 134.6, but he’s still been sacked seven times. He has almost as many yards already (1,499) as he had his entire junior year (1,571). It’s been good enough to rank PSU 47th in the nation in pass yardage (251.8).
Their rushing, however, must improve. The Nittany Lions are getting only 138.3 yards per game on the ground, which ranks near the bottom of the nation (90th). Accordingly, the imbalanced offense has resulted in only 27 points per game.
It’s been their defense which has made the difference and allowed them to win four of six games this year, while remaining undefeated in Big Ten play (2-0). Their defense is allowing only 16 points per game, and they haven’t given up more than 28 points in any game this year, with half of opponents scoring 16 points per less.
Iowa is also 4-2 with a 2-0 Big Ten record and they’ve won both the last two weeks, beating Minnesota 31-13 and Michigan State 19-16 in double OT last week.
In the thrilling victory, Mark Weisman ran for 116 yards and scored a game tying TD in the final minute of regulation. It was Mike Meyer’s foot that won the game eventually for them, as he kicked field goals in both overtimes, one of which was a 42 yard attempt, which gave the Hawkeyes their first and last lead of the game.
Like Penn State, it has been the Hawkeyes defense that has won them games. They rank 20th in the nation in points allowed, surrendering just 17.2 points per game. Only Central Michigan has managed more than 17 points against Iowa, on September 22nd, when Iowa lost 32-31.
Penn State Betting Trends:
Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 overall, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 in OCT, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing less than 275 total yards previous week.
Iowa Betting Trends:
Hawkeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 games vs teams with winning records, 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards, 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating less than 170 yards previous game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following an SU win.
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