#8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #8 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Stanford, California
Saturday, November 30, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Opening Line: Stanford -14
Current Line: Stanford -15 1/2
Opening Total: 50 1/2
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: Stanford -650 / Notre Dame +485
Current Money Line: Stanford -740 / Notre Dame +535
The 8-3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to close out the regular season with a win at 9-2 Stanford Saturday. The Cardinal are 7-2 in the Pac 12, and have already clinched a berth in the Pac 12 Championship game next week. Both the Fighting Irish and Cardinal are bowl eligible. Notre Dame leads the series 18-9 against Stanford including 6-6 at Stanford. The Fighting Irish won last year’s meeting 20-13 in overtime in South Bend, en route to an undefeated regular season and a berth in the BCS Championship game.
Notre Dame is coached by Brian Kelly. The Fighting Irish have road losses at Michigan 41-30 and Pittsburgh 28-21, along with a home loss to Oklahoma 35-21. Notre Dame has home wins over Temple 28-6, Michigan State 17-13, USC 14-10, Navy 38-34, and BYU last week 23-13, along with road wins over Purdue 31-24, Arizona State 37-34 in Arlington, TX, and Air Force 45-10. The Fighting Irish are 4-6-1 ATS and the total is 5-6 this season. Notre Dame was a 3 point underdog at home against BYU last week and the total was 53.
Notre Dame took an early 14-7 against BYU and would expand the lead to 17-7 by halftime. BYU would close the gap to 20-13 by the end of the third with 2 short field goals. Notre Dame kicked another field goal midway through the fourth to make it 23-13. The Cougars had a 22 yard field goal attempt blocked on their next possession. The Fighting Irish would hold on for the 10 point win. Notre Dame had 470 total yards, including exactly 235 passing and rushing yards each. BYU had 415 total yards including 247 rushing yards. Each team had one turnover.
Notre Dame is outscoring teams 28-23 this season. The Fighting Irish are #34 in points allowed nationally. Notre Dame is averaging 410.4 yards per game on offense, including 254.1 passing and 156.3 rushing yards. The Fighting Irish are #40 in passing nationally. On defense, Notre Dame is allowing 373.2 yards per game including 205.6 passing and 167.5 rushing yards. The Fighting Irish are #42 in total offense and #22 in pass defense. Notre Dame is -3 in turnovers with 14 giveaways. The Irish average 47 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 51. Notre Dame is 66/160 on third and fourth conversions and opponents are 74/185. The Fighting Irish have forced 16 sacks and allowed 7 this season. Notre Dame is 54/72 scoring in the red zone with 40 touchdowns and opponents are 60/74 with 42 touchdowns. The Fighting Irish have allowed 2 pick sixes this season but scored 3 of their own.
Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees has completed 54.5% of his passes for 2,739 yards with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Running back Cam McDaniel has 131 carries, 603 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. George Atkinson III has 89 carries, 554 yards, and 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches for 51 yards. Tarean Folston has 57 carries for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 2 catches. Amir Carlisle has 45 carries for 199 yards and 7 catches. Little used running back Greg Bryant is out for the season with a knee injury.
Receiver T.J. Jones has 59 catches, 986 yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 5 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown. DeVaris Daniels has 41 catches for 641 yards and six touchdowns. Troy Niklas has 26 catches for 398 yards and 5 touchdowns. Tight end Ben Kovack has 9 catches for 158 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four defensive players are out for the season.
Stanford is coached by David Shaw. The Cardinal have road losses at Utah 27-21 and at USC 20-17. Stanford has home wins over San Jose State 34-13, Arizona State 42-28, Washington 31-28, UCLA 24-10, Oregon 26-20 and last week against California 63-13 along with road wins at Army 34-20, Washington State 55-17 and Oregon State 20-12. The Cardinal are 6-5 ATS and the total is 5-6 this season. Stanford was a 31.5 point favorite against rival Cal last week and the total was 59.
Stanford and Cal were tied early at 7, but the Cardinal would take a 42-13 lead into halftime. The Cardinal added 3 more touchdowns in the second half to rout the Golden Bears 63-13. Stanford had 603 total yards including 417 passing yards. Cal had 383 total yards including 310 passing yards. Each team had one turnover. It was the last game of the season for the Golden Bears who completed a miserable 1-11 campaign.
Stanford is outscoring teams 33-19 this season. The Cardinal are #14 in points allowed nationally. The Cardinal are averaging 403.6 yards per game on offense including 199.4 passing and 204.3 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #92 in passing and #32 in rushing nationally out of 125 FBS teams. On defense, Stanford is allowing 349 total yards per game, including 259 passing yards and 90 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #3 in rush defense and #21 in total defense, but the pass defense is #102 nationally. Stanford is even in turnovers with 15 takeaways. Stanford is 88/165 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 66/187. Stanford averages 40 penalty yards per game and opponents average 51. The Cardinal have forced 34 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Stanford is 35/40 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns and opponents are 25/33 with 17 touchdowns. The Cardinal have two pick sixes this season and 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns, and have allowed one fumble return for a touchdown.
Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has completed 60.6% of his passes for 2,052 yards with 18 touchdowns and 7 picks, along with 59 carries for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns. Running back Tyler Gaffney has 251 carries, 1,296 yards and 16 touchdowns, along with 12 catches, 84 yards and a touchdown. Anthony Wilkerson has 69 carries, 262 yards and a touchdown, along with 5 catches for 38 yards. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 50 catches, 822 yards and 9 touchdowns, plus two kickoff returns for touchdowns. Montgomery also has 12 carries for 137 rushing yards. Devon Cajuste has 22 catches, 396 yards and 4 touchdowns. Michael Rector has 11 catches for 353 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Notre Dame is 3-1-1 ATS after gaining 450 total yards or more, 2-5-1 after a straight up win, 4-11 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 1-4 after allowing 20 points or less, and 1-5 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Fighting Irish are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Stanford.
Stanford is 22-3-1 ATS after scoring more than 40 points, 4-1 at home, 11-3 in non-conference games, 25-7-1 after passing for 280 yards or more, 7-2 in November, 26-8-1 after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 9-3 after allowing 280 passing yards or more, 20-7-1 after a cover, 36-14-1 after a straight up win, 20-8 after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, and after gaining more than 450 total yards, 5-2 against teams with winning records, 35-16-1 overall and on grass, 19-9 against teams with winning records, 36-17-1 after allowing less than 20 points. The under is 5-2 in this series recently.
While this rivalry might not be quite as prestigious as Notre Dame’s rivalries with USC and Michigan, it is still pretty heated. Both teams play hard hitting defense and this should be a low scoring affair. Stanford struggles to stop the pass and Notre Dame has drastically improved their passing game this season. Still, most experts think Notre Dame is locked into the Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium, win or lose, so motivation could be an issue for the Fighting Irish. Stanford wins on a late field goal.
