No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, 11/12/11, 7:45 PM EST, TV: ESPN
Opening Point Spread: Alabama -17
Current Betting Line: Alabama -18
Opening Total: 42.5
Current Total: 42.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Alabama will look to rebound after losing in last week’s “Game of the Century” to the LSU Tigers by a field goal in overtime. Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban knows it will be a challenge to get his team focused after such a deflating defeat. “We have to forget about it and act like it never happened,” stated Alabama safety Robert Lester. “We don’t pay attention to our record as it is.” The two teams will be meeting for the 96th time in school history, posting a 73-18-3 record in the series, including a 15-4 record in Starksville. Alabama is 8-3 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, while the ‘under’ is 8-3 in those contests.
The Crimson Tide defense is a dominating force in not allowing more than 14 points in the first nine games of the season. Over the last 10 games, Alabama’s stop unit has limited opponents to just 45.9 rushing yards, while surrendering just two rushing touchdowns. Despite last week’s loss to the Tigers, the program is still No. 3 in the current BCS standings. On the offensive side of the ball, the team has scored 27 rushing touchdowns, ranking fifth nationally and first in the SEC. Running back Trent Richardson is a Heisman Trophy candidate, leading all conference runners in gaining 119.8 yards per game.
Mississippi State is home for a second straight week and has won three of its last four games overall. The Bulldogs are led offensively by running back Vick Ballard, who has rushed for 790 yards and seven touchdowns through nine games this season, ranking fourth in the SEC in rushing yards per game. The quarterback responsibility has been shared between Chris Relf and Tyler Russell, something that head coach Dan Mullen plans on using Saturday. “Tyler has played against the Tide, Chris has played against them,” stated Mullen in practice this week. Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points.
The Bulldogs will need to force turnovers to remain competitive in this game, posting a 9-2 record when creating three or more miscues since the start of the 2009 campaign. Keeping Alabama out of the end zone when reaching the red zone will also be important, ranking second in the SEC in allowing opponents to score just 23-of-30 times when getting inside the 20-yard line.
Bettors will likely back the Crimson Tide due to their 6-0 ATS mark as a road favorite of 10.5 or more points, while the Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 or more points.
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