Oregon (-11 ½) at Tennessee – The Ducks slaughtered New Mexico last week, 72-0. Believe it or not, Oregon didn’t run up the score, either; Oregon played a solid half of football and led 59-0 at the break. While Oregon’s offense looks to be potent, don’t underestimate New Mexico. By all accounts, they are that bad.
The line opened with the Ducks as 13 ½ road favorites, and even though the public loved them through the week, the line has come down to 11 ½ or 12 points, depending upon the book. The public is currently playing Oregon at over 60%. The wiseguys are the usual suspects for reverse action.
So why are the professional bettors backing the Volunteers? One reason might be that Tennessee is an SEC school with SEC speed and talent that’s playing at home. Also, playing a team like New Mexico doesn’t exactly prepare a team for the rest of its schedule; the Ducks would’ve gotten stiffer competition from an FCS team like Montana. Tennessee actually played an FCS team – Tennessee Martin – and won easily, 50-0. The Vols shutout a team for the first time in 7 years, and held its opponent to under 150 total yards. Look for Tennessee to give Oregon a rude welcome to Neyland Stadium.
Air Force (-1) vs. BYU – The BYU Cougars opened as 2 ½ point road favorites, but now the Falcons are favored by a point. BYU is getting the public’s attention at just under 80% and the line has moved 3 ½ points in the opposite direction. I hold the wiseguys responsible.
The public was likely impressed by the Cougars’ win over visiting Washington last Saturday night. I, for one, lost on that game. Additionally, Air Force had a tough time with Northwestern State. The Falcons led 24-21 at halftime. But they must’ve gotten a good halftime butt-chewing because they scored the last 41 points of the game, winning easily, 65-21.
BYU has won the last 3 match-ups in the series, but Max Hall is gone now. The main question in this game is simple: can BYU restrain the Falcons’ triple option attack? If yes, advantage Cougars. If not, advantage Falcons. Both teams have difficult draws the week after, so either one could be overlooking this game. BYU travels to Florida State while Air Force heads to Norman, Oklahoma. Coincidentally, Florida State and Oklahoma also play this weekend.
Stanford (-6) at UCLA – The wiseguys appear to moving this line, too. The line opened with Stanford favored by 8 points but has come down to 6 points with most sportsbooks. The public, however, is playing the Cardinal at over 80%. Classic reverse action in this ballgame.
Stanford is another road favorite with a much tougher week 2 opponent. The Cardinal had its way with lowly Sacramento State, 52-17. UCLA lost a tough game in Manhattan, Kansas to the Kansas State Wildcats, 31-22. I was actually impressed with UCLA, even though they lost. I didn’t expect them to give up over 300 yards rushing, but I didn’t see the defense giving up fewer than 70 yards passing, either. Stanford’s attack is through the air with Andrew Luck. I see UCLA linebacker Akeem Ayers making several big plays.
