Arkansas (over 8.5 wins, even) The Razorbacks play in the rugged SEC, and have some tough in-conference road games at Georgia, Auburn, Mississippi St and South Carolina. They get home games against Alabama, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and LSU. The non-conference schedule is packed with cupcakes aside from a neutral site game against Texas A&M in Dallas. They have home games against Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and UTEP. The Razorbacks will probably lose one of the conference road games, and probably against Alabama. Every other game is winnable, and the Razorbacks will be favored in most of them. That adds up to 10 wins and gives them a one game cushion in case they stumble against LSU or Texas A&M.
Boise St (over 11 wins, +110) Boise has won 14 games in a row. They open the season against Virginia Tech in Landover, MD. It won’t be easy but if Boise St can upset Frank Beamer’s Hokies they will run the table. The only other potential problem games on the schedule are home against Oregon St and at Nevada. Boise will be heavy favorites in both those games though. Even if the Broncos lose to Virginia Tech, that is still 11 wins, and you get a push. I don’t even see a potential letdown if Boise loses to Virginia Tech, as the Broncos still want to win the conference title in their last year before moving to the Mountain West next season.
Connecticut (over 8 wins, +110) The Huskies are a very good team and have a favorable schedule. They might even win the Big East title if they get some breaks. They open at Michigan which will be tough, but the rest of the non-conference schedule is pretty easy. They have home games against Texas Southern, Buffalo and Vanderbilt, and a potential trap game at a pesky Temple team. In conference they get all the conference favorites at home including Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati, and road games at Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville, and South Florida. Assuming they lose against Michigan and win the rest of their non-conference games, they just have to go 5-2 in conference. That is very possible with the schedule.
Iowa (under 8.5 wins, +170) last year the Hawkeyes won 10 games and upset Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl. They did with mainly smoke and mirrors as the offense wasn’t that great, and the defense was solid. They won a lot of close games against inferior opponents. This year, the schedule is tougher and I can see the Hawkeyes regressing slightly. They open against Eastern Illinois before playing in-state rival Iowa St, always a tough game. Then they travel to Arizona in another tough game. They have conference home games against Penn St, Wisconsin, Michigan St, and Ohio St, and road games at Michigan, Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota. I see it adding up to 7 or 8 wins.
Notre Dame (under 8 wins, -115) Coach Brian Kelly takes over the Fighting Irish program after leaving Cincinnati. The Irish will be better, but the team really quit on Charlie Weis last year. They have to replace quarterback Jimmy Clausen and wide receiver Golden Tate. The schedule is pretty difficult. It includes games at Michigan St, Boston College, Navy and Southern Cal, and home games against Purdue, Michigan, Stanford, Pitt, and Utah. I see the Irish winning 7 games as Coach Kelly installs his new system.
Other potential totals I like are Arizona (over 7 wins, -300), Tennessee (over 6 wins, +180), TCU (over 10.5 wins, -270), and USC (under 9.5 wins, +110). It should be a great season and I look forward to it. For more picks, check out our weekly college football picks page where you can get point spread winners from expert handicappers.
