Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls
Saturday, 10/22/11, 12:00 PM EST, TV: ESPN3
Opening Point Spread: South Florida -2.5
Current Betting Line: South Florida -3
Opening Total: 55.5
Current Total: 55.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Cincinnati has won four straight games and will be playing the first of four road games over the next five contests. The Bearcats are needing one win to gain bowl eligibility after not playing in the postseason a year ago. Saturday marks the ninth matchup between the Bulls and Bearcats. Prior to last year’s 38-30 loss at Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati had won four consecutive meetings. In two games against the Bulls, quarterback Zach Collaros is 34-of-60 for 535 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati is 1-3 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests.
The Bearcats are plus-12 overall in turnover margin and have 10 interceptions, which ranks 11th nationally. Cincinnati has outscored its opponents 141-51 in the first half this season despite being held to only 13 first-half points in the last two games. Offensively, the team leads the Big East in scoring, averaging 41.7 points per game. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats rank second in allowing just 16.5 points a contest. The stop unit has not allowed an offensive touchdown in nine quarters with the last three opponents averaging 14 rushing yards per game.
South Florida enters on a two-game losing streak, but both defeats came away from Raymond James Stadium. The Bulls dropped a 16-10 contest to the Connecticut Huskies as 7.5-point road favorites last time out, but managed to out-gain the Huskies by 86 yards. Oddsmakers have caught up to the program, dropping its last three games against the spread, after posting a perfect 3-0 ATS mark to start the season. South Florida is 3-0 ATS after two or more consecutive straight-up losses the last two-plus seasons.
The Bulls have the second-best offense in the Big East in terms of total yards, averaging 476.2 yards per game, but most of the success came against much-lesser opponents. South Florida has been held to a 382-yard average against its first two conference opponents. In fact, the program has scored only 27 points combined versus Big East competition, which ranks last in the league. A key in this contest will be wide receiver Derrick Hopkins trying to open up the running game by being successful down field, as he leads the team with 32 catches and 420 yards.
Bettors will likely back the Bulls due to their 23-11 ATS mark after scoring less than 20 points, while the Bearcats are 0-6 ATS as a road underdog.
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