The Tigers opened as 5 ½ point home favorites on the college football odds, and while some books are holding steady, others have moved that up to 6 points. The squares are slightly favoring the home team, backing Clemson at just under 55%.
The situational numbers favor the Rambin’ Wreck in this game. Against the spread over the past 3 season, Tech is 10-4 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 9-2 in October, and 14-7 against conference opponents – some outstanding numbers. Clemson hasn’t been terrible, but not as good as GT. They’re 6-1 ats as a favorite between 3 ½ and 10 points, but just 7-8 at home, 9-10 as a favorite, 10-10 against conference opponents, and 3-5 in October. In the past 3 seasons, the Ramblin’ Wreck is 3-0 straight up in this series.
Tech played disappointing football earlier in the season. They lost against an awful Kansas team and dropped a home game to NC State by 17 points. But since then, they’ve won 3 in a row and Paul Johnson’s triple option attack is humming along. At quarterback, Josh Nesbitt is an experienced operator and the Ramblin’ Wreck always seem to have about 3 backs that can break a run at any time. The defense has had some issues, but they’ve played well lately.
While GT has been disappointing at times, what about Clemson? For some reason, they haven’t faced as much scrutiny for their lousy play. The offense has been anemic. In conference play, the offense is averaging only 276.3 yards per game. In conference play, the team is -1 in turnovers, which is a bad sign for a team having trouble gaining yards. Kyle Parker is a tremendous athlete, but he’s either injured or too worried about his baseball career because he’s completing just 45.3% of his passes at home for the season; that includes games against North Texas and Presbyterian. They’ve run the ball impressively, earning 4.8 yards per carry at home. But overall, this offense has badly underperformed.
Something seemed to happen in the second half of the Auburn game. Clemson came out and dominated Auburn in the first half, but then blew the lead and lost in overtime. Ever since that game, Clemson has not been the same team. They lost to Miami at home, and turned the ball over 6 times. Then they lost to an undermanned North Carolina team, which they followed up with a 31-7 win against Maryland. But against the Terps, Clemson was still outgained by about 150 yards. Something seems off in Death Valley.
Georgia Tech has played well against Clemson, and they’ve been the better team of late. The triple option attack has a way of hitting its stride in October, which might be why Tech is 9-2 ats in their past 11 October games. Additionally, it’s hard for defenses to adjust to an option team at midseason. After seeing so many pro style or spread offenses, it has to be extremely frustrating to line up against a traditional triple option attack. Very few teams still run the triple option, and a week isn’t much time to prepare for Georgia Tech.
All things considered, we feel Georgia Tech has some good value in this game. The Clemson offense hasn’t shown us anything since the first half against Auburn, and Georgia Tech appears to be hitting their stride. The Ramblin’ Wreck are a great underdog, and they’re the play in this one. Good luck with all your wagers.
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