The Bulls opened as 11 point favorites, but with the public playing Syracuse heavy for most of the week, the line came down to 7 points. Some buy back on South Florida has pushed the college football lines back up to 7 ½, and the public is currently split 50/50. With such a significant line swing, South Florida has some good value in this contest.
Both teams have played weak schedules so far. Syracuse has wins over Akron, Maine, and Colgate, with their one loss being at Washington. South Florida has beaten Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, and Florida Atlantic, with their one loss at home against Florida. Each team has done what they should – beat up on bad teams and get kicked against a good one. But to South Florida’s credit, they played the Gators tough for a half. They ran out of gas, and Florida’s defense was the deciding factor.
One big reason for liking South Florida is their experienced offensive line. All 5 starters are back from last year’s squad, and 4 are seniors. Syracuse’s front 7 isn’t bad, with 6 coming back from last year. But the one loss is big – nose tackle Arthur Jones was a 1st team all-Big East performer. Losing that talent and experience could be pivotal against a veteran o-line that plays well together. Having said that, though, Syracuse has a solid set of linebackers who can make plays.
Another reason to side with the Bulls is the quarterback situation. B.J. Daniels is a tremendous talent who can run and throw the ball effectively. Daniels is clearly a better rusher than passer, but he has the ability to hit the long ball. With the way South Florida can run the ball, look for play-action from Daniels to his receivers on the outside.
The ‘Cuse have sophomore Ryan Nassib who is in his first season as starter for the Orange. Nassib will be a good quarterback, but I don’t think he has the experience to go on the road this early in the season against a conference opponent and compete. Unfortunately for the green signal caller, the ‘Cuse have only 2 returning starters on the offensive line. Their running backs aren’t too bad, but their inexperienced unit up front is reason for concern.
It’s also worth pointing out what a disaster the Greg Robinson experience was for Syracuse. Just so you know – Robinson is the current defensive coordinator for Michigan, and rumor has it he won’t be there for long. The main reason for bringing up Robinson is not to just to trash on the guy, but to point out that Robinson did not do a good job of recruiting talent. The ‘Cuse are in their second year removed from Robinson, and continue to suffer from a lack of talent.
In last year’s game, Syracuse actually outgained the Bulls. But 7 turnovers led to a 14 point loss at the Carrier Dome. The last time the Orange went to South Florida was 2 years ago, and they got smoked, 45-13. When the Bulls travel to Syracuse next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they find a way to win. But this will still be a year of growing pains for a team struggling to remove itself from the Robinson era. The Orange don’t play the Bulls well, either. The squares (and some sharps) have given South Florida a lot of value with this line. Buying a half point to play the Bulls at 7 is a safe move, but anything under 10 points feels like a good play.
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