Ohio State opened as a 6 point road favorite by the college football oddsmakers, and despite the public playing the Buckeyes at nearly 90%, the line has come down to 3 ½ or 4 points. Usually, this type of reverse action is a sound way to follow wiseguys to a good play. But in this case, we feel sharp money has actually created nice value for the better team. The squares are dead on – the Buckeyes are the way to go in this match-up.
The technical numbers definitely support a play on Ohio State. Over the past three seasons against the spread, the Buckeyes are 17-8 as a favorite, 7-3 as an underdog, 10-4 against teams with a winning record, and 7-4 in October – all stellar numbers. On the flip side, Wisconsin has been less than spectacular. Against the spread over the same time period, the Badgers are 4-5 as an underdog, 6-10 at home, 4-9 against teams with a winning record, and 3-7 in October. And if you like playing the total, these teams consistently play under against each other. In games dating back to 1992, the under has played 10 out of 13 times, with all 7 games at Wisconsin going under the total.
Additionally, the Buckeyes are 5-1 ats this season. Their only loss was at Illinois, a team that stuck it to Penn State in Happy Valley. Wisconsin has been awful against the spread, sitting at 1-5 for the year. Their only cover was against Austin Peay, an FCS school. While Ohio State has outplayed oddsmakers’ expectations, Wisconsin has been terribly disappointing. It’s hard to imagine the Badgers keeping this close.
If Michigan State can run and throw all over the Badger defense, what are Terrell Pryor and the Buckeye offense going to do against them? While Wisconsin has a physical, disciplined defense, they lack the speed and athleticism to keep up with OSU. By the same token, if Wisconsin can’t gain yards against Michigan State, how in the world can they against Ohio State? Home field advantage isn’t that important. Wisconsin cannot throw the ball well enough to keep 8 Buckeyes out of the box, and John Clay has been subpar all season long.
Consider the schedules of these two teams. Wisconsin has played UNLV, San Jose State, Austin Peay, and Minnesota, and they were able to dominate these poor opponents. But against Arizona State and Michigan State, the Badgers struggled badly. They should’ve lost to ASU and the Spartans beat them by 10 points. Ohio State has played Marshall, Ohio, Eastern Michigan, and Indiana – 4 patsies, just like Wisconsin. But in their games against Miami (FL) and Illinois, Ohio State won each game by double digits.
In Wisconsin’s defense, they haven’t turned the ball over once in the past four games, which is outstanding. And against Minnesota, the Badger o-line played better than it’s played all season long. The Badgers seem to be getting their act together, but they just aren’t far enough along at this point in the season to compete with Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are only giving up 78 yards rushing per game on a measly 2.7 yards per carry. Per game, the OSU defense is giving up only 236 total yards and 4 yards per play. They’re the defending Rose Bowl champs and the number 1 team in the nation for good reason. This is a very good football team that has a habit of cover spreads.
With sharp money moving the line down, the Buckeyes have tremendous value in this game. But they shouldn’t need it. Ohio State got its scare at Illinois. That’s another reason to side with OSU – they’ve had a road wakeup call. Don’t expect a down game from the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State and lay the points. You won’t be sorry.
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