Mississippi Rebels at Arkansas Razorbacks, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Saturday, October 23, 2010, 12;21 pm Eastern, TV: SEC Network, ESPN Gameplan
Opening Line: Arkansas -9 1/2
Current Line: Arkansas -9 1/2
Opening Total: 60 1/2
Current Total: 59
Money Line: Arkansas -360 / Mississippi +300

Last week Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett was knocked out of the Razorback’s 65-43 loss at Auburn in the second quarter. Mallett is expected to play as he had no ill effects from the minor concussion during the week. The Razorbacks play their first home game in a month as they take on former coach Houston Nuttand his Ole Miss Rebels. Arkansas is 4-2 while Mississippi is 3-3. The Rebels have won 2 games in a row in the series straight up and bothgames have gone under. Ole Miss has done well against the spread when playing teams with winning records on the road going 32-14 since 1992.

The Rebels are scoring 33 points a game and gaining just under 400 yards a game. However they are giving up 31 points and 355 yards a game. They are decent against the run giving up only 113 yards a game, but they give up 242 yards a game via the pass. The Rebels have only one interception for the season, and have an overall turnover margin of -3. The Rebel defense averages just under 3 sacks a game. On offense, the Rebels are led by Oregon transfer QB Jeremiah Masoli. Masolihas produced with both his arms and legs as he has over 1,200 combined rushing and passing yards along with 10 total touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The Rebels average 218 yards a game on the ground.  Besides Masoli the top rusher is Brandon Bolden who has 86 carries for 550 yards and 5 touchdowns. Masoli spreads the ball around as 5 Rebel receivers have at least 10 catches. The Rebels usually start off fast as they are outscoring their opponents 113-70 but don’t finish well getting outscored 60-27 in the 4th quarter. That explains the Rebels’ 3-3 record.

Arkansas has two losses to highly ranked Alabama and Auburn. Arkansas had leads in the fourthquarter of bothgames before both teams came back. Alabama scored 17 unanswered points to end the game and win 24-20. Auburn scored 28 points in a row to end the game and win the highest scoring game non-overtime game in SEC history 65-43. Arkansas is usually decent on defense as they only give up 330 yards  a game, including 167 on the ground. The Razorbacks’ main problems involve turnovers and penalties. They have a minus -5 turnover ratio and give up 68 yards a game in penalties.   The Razorbacks offense is almost unstoppable averaging 480 yards a game, including 366 though the air. Mallett has thrown for 1,844 yards, 14 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Though the interception rate is a little high, the Razorbacks throw the ball 50 or 60 times a game and some of those are bound to be intercepted. Even backup Tyler Wilson did well last week replacing Mallett throwing for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. Greg Childs (37 catches, 527 yards, and 5 touchdowns), Joe Adams (28 catches, 495 yards, and 4 touchdowns), and running back Ronnie WingoJr. (19 catches 4 touchdowns) are the most dangerous receivers for the Hogs. Arkansas doesn’t run the ball much with their prolific passing game and the only rush for 113 yards a game led by Knile Davis and Broderick Green.

Mississippi is in the midst of a brutal stretch where they play Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn in consecutive weeks. The secondary will be tested with Mallett chucking the ball like he does. Bettors should keep an eye on the Mallett situation as concussions are tricky to predict. I fully expect him to play and play well. There is a 50% chance of rain, so it might affect the game as well. Both of these teams need a victory and it should be a great game between conference rivals.  Our number on this game is a little higher than what the current college football point spread is so there seems to be a little bit of value on Arkansas -9.5.  Not enough to release it as a premium pick but enough to where we personally will be placing a wager on the Arkansas side.

If you are looking for some stronger plays for Saturday look no further than our 20 unit game of the year.  We have absolutely dominated the books with our 20 unit plays so far this season, (5-0 in college football 20 unit releases) and will more than likely nail this game as well.  Visit the college football predictions page for Saturday and stuff your wallet with the help of Maddux’s handicapping advice.