The total for the game started at 40 points and has moved up slightly to 40 ½ points. The public is playing the over at about 2:1, which is probably why an extra ½ point has been added on. But after considering the way the two teams have played this year, it’s a good idea to fade this public favorite and put your money on the under.
The Hawks have one of the best defenses in the country. The front 4 is rock solid. The linebackers are the weakest part of the defense, but having a dominating defensive line certainly helps to compensate for their relative lack of experience. The secondary has 3 starters back from last year, and the safeties are smart, hard-hitting ball-hawkers.
The defense has lived up to expectations so far. They haven’t given up 80 yards rushing to any team. Teams are averaging a measly 2.4 yards per carry against Iowa. The pass defense is holding opponents to 162 yards per game. As a unit, the defense is allowing only 227 yards per game.
Importantly, the defense has done its part to keep points off the board. They gave up a meaningless touchdown to Eastern Illinois, and another to Iowa State after the starters were taken out. Against Arizona, the Wildcats scored off a block punt inside the 10 yard line, a pick 6 courtesy Ricky Stanzi, a kickoff return touchdown, two field goals, and only one real touchdown drive. Last week against Ball State, the Iowa defense pitched a shutout. Simply put, this is a great defense.
Penn State’s D has been sturdy, too. They’ve given up an average of 276 yards per game, and that includes a trip to Tuscaloosa, Alabama. In their game against the defending national champs, the Nittany Lions’ defense yielded only 24 points. Otherwise, they’ve given up a total of 27 points combined in their 3 wins, including a shutout of Kent State.
Offensively, both squads have reason for concern. Regarding Iowa, the Hawks have lost their #2, #3, and #4 running backs. After Adam Robinson, look for an inexperienced freshman to get reps. Depth is important when playing a team like Penn State. For the Nittany Lions, they’re playing a true freshman quarterback in Robert Bolden. Bolden has done well so far, considering his youth and inexperience. But when the Nittany Lions played ‘Bama, they managed to score only 3 points. This Saturday, Bolden will be playing a night game at Kinnick Stadium against a great defense as a true freshman quarterback – that sounds like trouble.
The technical numbers support a play on the under, too. Since 1992, which is relevant considering Joe Paterno’s tenure, Penn State has played the total 16-33 as an underdog, 1-5 as a road underdog between 3 ½ and 7 points, and 30-36 on the road. For Iowa, over the past 3 seasons the Hawks have played the total 5-9 at home, 6-12 as a favorite, and 4-9 against teams with a winning record.
To put the game into perspective, imagine this: Penn State gave up 24 points to Alabama on the road, and ‘Bama’s offense is more potent than Iowa’s. Let’s say Iowa scores between 17 and 20 points. What are the odds that Iowa wins the game straight up? I think they’re pretty darn good. So if Iowa wins straight up scoring 20 points, the total will necessarily stay below 40 points. Fade the public favorite in this match-up – the under is the play to pay.
Maddux Sports has this Saturday’s guaranteed winning plays. The professionals at Maddux are playing the spread at better than 70%. Don’t miss out on another week of profitable returns including our college football game of the year. Get these winners by visiting our college football predictions page of the site.
