Air Force Falcons at No. 5 Boise State Broncos
Saturday, 10/22/11, 3:30 PM EST, TV: Versus
Opening Point Spread: Boise State -30.5
Current Betting Line: Boise State -29
Opening Total: 64
Current Total: 64.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Air Force is set to face its second ranked team this season, dropping a 35-19 contest to the TCU Horned Frogs as one-point home favorites in Week 2. The Falcons will be looking to snap two-game losing streak this week, but actually won the statistical battle in each contest, including by five yards in a 59-33 road defeat to Notre Dame. Defensively, the team ranks 103rd in the nation in allowing 434.7 yards per game, which will be a major problem in facing a potent Boise State attack. Air Force is 1-5 ATS on the season and the ‘over’ has cashed in five opportunities this year.
The Falcons are 0-2 in conference play for the first time since 1994, which isn’t good when facing the best team in the Mountain West. Quarterback Tim Jefferson will need to make good decisions, leading the third-ranked rushing offense onto the field, but came away with just 195 rushing yards against San Diego State last week. Air Force leads all teams in the conference and ranks 10th nationally in averaging 506.3 yards per game.
Boise State continues to hammer lesser opponents, coming away with a 63-13 win over the Colorado State Rams as 32-point road favorites. The Broncos tallied a 57-7 victory over the Fresno State Bulldogs the prior week, with both of those contests going over the total. Offensively, the team has rushed for 576 combined yards the past two weeks, while gaining a school-record 742 yards in Fort Collins last Saturday. The team is tied for fifth nationally in turnover margin, while leading the nation in defensive third down efficiency. Boise State is a dominating 22-10 ATS over the last two-plus seasons, while the ‘under’ is 16-15 in that span.
The Broncos are 71-2 (.973) at home since the beginning of the 2000 season, with the winning percentage ranking first nationally over that span. Boise State does a tremendous job in protecting senior quarterback Kellen Moore, allowing just three in six games this season. Moore has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 19 consecutive games, which is the longest such streak in the country. The senior also leads all active signal-callers with 44 wins. Running back Doug Martin is also a nice option in the backfield, becoming just the seventh player in school history to eclipse 4,000 career all-purpose yards.
Bettors will likely back the Falcons due to their 6-1 ATS mark on field turf, while the Broncos are 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points this year.
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