Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, 10/8/11, 7:00 PM EST, TV: ESPNU
Opening Point Spread: Alabama -28.5
Current Betting Line: Alabama -28.5
Opening Total: 41.5
Current Total: 41.5
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker
Vanderbilt is coming off an open week and the coaching staff knows it must find an offense in order to remain competitive against one of the top teams in the country. “We need to get all the points we can. Defense, offense and special teams,” coach James Franklin stated in practice this week. “Collectively, this is the best unit I’ve seen since I’ve been coaching college football.” Vanderbilt leads the nation with 14 interceptions, which has already surpassed their 2009 and 2010 season totals in picks. The defense is limiting opponents to just 15.8 points per game, while ranking third nationally in the red zone. Vanderbilt is 10-16 ATS over the last two-plus seasons, while the ‘under’ is 18-8 in that span.
The Commodores are 3-1 on the season and tasted defeat for the first time two weeks ago, dropping a 21-3 decision to the South Carolina Gamecocks as 14.5-point road underdogs. Vanderbilt is plus-seven in turnover margin through four games, which is a category that Franklin has stressed since coming on campus. The program is the only one in America that has surpassed its 2010 win total through three games of 2011.
Alabama picked up a dominating 38-10 win over Florida as 3.5-point road favorites last week and has out-gained all five opponents this year by a triple-digit margin. The Crimson Tide will be playing their Homecoming Game this week, posting a 76-13-1 all-time record in that situation, including a 23-10 win over Mississippi on Oct. 16, 2010. Since Nick Saban’s arrival, Alabama has tallied a 14-1 record in October, outscoring opponents by a 376-208 margin, including a 5-1 mark versus ranked teams. Alabama is 11-8 ATS versus conference opponents and the ‘under’ is 10-7 in those contests.
The Crimson Tide always pride themselves on finishing in the fourth quarter, outscoring their first five opponents by a 45-8 margin. Alabama has out-gained opponents on the ground in the final 15 minutes by 580 yards. Trent Richardson is starting to gain more traction in the Heisman Trophy race, running for 622 yards through five games, scoring 10 touchdowns on 96 carries. Alabama is 23-1 in its last 24 games inside Bryant-Denny Stadium dating back to the 2008 season. Defensively, the team is surrendering just 191.6 yards per game, which is third in the nation.
Bettors will likely back the Commodores due to the road team being 4-1 ATS, while the Crimson Tide are just 36-35 ATS in October.
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