The Ohio State Buckeyes will welcome the Michigan State Spartans to the Horseshoe this Saturday in the forgotten Big 10 game of the weekend. The Wisconsin-Nebraska game will understandably get the lion’s share of press, but this should be a great game and one that Ohio State has some value in.

The line opened at Ohio State -2 ½ and it’s stayed fairly steady for most of the week. Most books are posting -3, although a few have gone up to -3 ½. From my research the public is divided, recently playing Michigan State at 51%. The sharps are probably responsible for budging the line, which is encouraging. All things considered, the Buckeyes seem like a solid play at -3.

Against the spread in recent years, Ohio State has been outstanding. Over the past three seasons they’re 15-3 ats at home, 19-6 as a favorite, and 10-3 against teams with a winning record. Granted, Jim Tressel and his majestic vest no longer roam the sidelines. But Tressel and his staff established a tradition of not just winning, but winning and covering the spread. That’s what we care about here.

It was encouraging to see the way the Buckeyes bounced back last week. They were embarrassed at Miami the week before, and the problems at quarterback came to the forefront. Luke Fickell deserves a lot of credit for transitioning to freshman Braxton Miller. Miller is better for OSU in the long run, and Fickell discovered he’s better in the short run, too. While he isn’t a great passer, Miller’s ability to run the football is extremely valuable for this team. The bottom line is that Miller’s legs are more important than Joe Bauserman’s arm. Just ask Colorado. Miller rushed 17 times for 83 yards, an average of just about 5 yards a carry. And the threat of the run certainly set up the pass at times, which is why Miller had 2 touchdown tosses with only 5 completions.

However, Michigan State is a better team than Colorado, no questions asked. Similar to Ohio State, Sparty bounced back from a humbling loss to Notre Dame by throttling Central Michigan at home last week. Kirk Cousins had a nice game, but offensively, the key was Michigan State’s ability to run the football. They gashed the hapless Chippewas, rushing 47 times for nearly 200 years en route to a 45-7 victory. The defense played tremendously, holding Central Michigan to just 112 total yards and intercepting 4 passes.

Both teams are solid this year, and each one should end up in a respectable bowl game. But the reason I like Ohio State here (beyond the fact that they cover the spread like Boise State) is that I’m not convinced Michigan State can hang with a good team on the road. Notre Dame beat them up pretty good. Last year when Michigan State nearly ran the table, they were blessed with an easy schedule that didn’t include Ohio State. They beat Wisconsin at home. But when they traveled to Kinnick Stadium to play a tough team in a hostile environment, the Spartans were embarrassed.

This won’t be an easy game for Ohio State, especially with a couple key players still suspended. Nevertheless, after the way the team rebounded from the Miami loss, I think Buckeyes are the play here. Their defense is good enough to keep the Spartan rushing attack in check. And if Sparty can’t run the ball, Cousins has a habit of struggling badly. If for no other reason, I like backing teams that have a strong history of covering the spread. Like always, the winning plays for the day are with the sharps here at Maddux Sports. But for a free pick, consider laying the points. Good luck!