The Iowa State Cyclones and Northern Illinois Huskies hook up in Ames this Thursday night for a game that most people aren’t noticing. The Head Ball Coach and South Carolina open up on ESPN against Southern Miss, Pitt and Utah looks to be a great match-up, and USC travels to Hawaii in the late game. These games feature big-name schools and understandably hoard a lion’s share of the press. Although the Cyclones and Huskies are flying under-the-radar, expect this to be an entertaining game.
Both teams are coming off surprising, bowl-eligible seasons. Iowa State shocked the Nebraska Cornhuskers in Lincoln – thanks to 8 takeaways – en route to a 7-6 season, capped off by a victory over Minnesota in the Insight.com Bowl. Northern Illinois played well in the MAC, but the highlight of the Huskies’ season was an upset over Purdue in West Lafayette. South Florida proved to be too much for the Huskies in the International Bowl, but a 7-6 overall record was better than most pundits predicted.
The 2010 season looks to be more challenging for the Cyclones. Iowa State’s schedule is perhaps the most difficult in the country with 4 preseason top ten teams on the docket: Iowa, Texas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Of the four, the only home game is against Nebraska and the Huskers will be out for blood. In non-conference action, Iowa State plays Iowa and Northern Illinois along with Utah and in-state I-AA powerhouse Northern Iowa. If the Cyclones manage to make a bowl this season, head coach Paul Rhoads might be elected mayor of Ames.
Northern Illinois plays in the MAC, maybe the worst conference in college football, but the Huskies play Iowa State, Minnesota and Illinois in the first month of the season. That will certainly test the Huskies’ mettle, but the truth is that each game is winnable. In MAC play, a road game at Ball State and a home battle with MAC East favorite Temple look to be the two toughest conference games for Northern Illinois.
While both teams have crucial ingredients coming back from last year’s teams, Northern Illinois has the upper-hand with 17 returning starters. The Huskies punishing ground game (196 yards per game last season) is expected to be even better. Three returning offensive lineman will make holes for 1st team all-MAC running back Chad Spann. Junior quarterback Chandler Harnish is probably a better runner than thrower, and his dual-threat abilities should guide the Huskies to a good number of wins. On defense, Northern Illinois brings back experience at each level. The D-line might be the best of the three. The Huskies had a respectable run defense last year and that trend should continue.
Iowa State has 8 returning starters on offense, including tailback Alexander Robinson. Last season Robinson carved up defenses for nearly 1,200 yards. Four returning offensive linemen are led by tackle Kelechi Osemele, a 2nd team all-Big 12 performer. But the man to make the offense move is senior quarterback Austin Arnaud. All reports are that Arnaud – in his second season within Paul Rhoads’ spread offense – has an excellent understanding of what Rhoads hopes to accomplish. He is poised to improve on solid numbers from last season (over 2,000 pass yards, 500 rush yards, 22 total touchdowns, and 13 interceptions). Unfortunately for Cyclone fans, offense is only half the battle. On defense only 4 starters return from a unit that was somehow 5th in points allowed (21.8) in the Big 12. Replacing 1st team all-Big 12 linebacker Jesse Smith is a tall order, but Rhoads has a strong defensive background and is making a habit of proving Cyclone-doubters wrong.
The Cyclones opened as 2 ½ point favorites on the college football betting odds, but the public has been on the side of Iowa State at around 85 %, pushing the line up to 3 points. Speaking technically, Iowa State seems to have a slight advantage. In the past two years the Cyclones are 2-0 against the spread (ats) vs. MAC opponents, 5-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in non-con games, and 3-3 when the line is +/- 3 points. On the flip side, Northern Illinois hasn’t played a Big 12 school recently. The Huskies are 4-4 ats in non-con games, 5-4 as an underdog, only 1-3 when the line is +/- 3, but an impressive 7-4 in road games.
These are two evenly matched teams, which is why the line hasn’t moved much despite Iowa State getting heavy action. My recommendation is to wait and see if the line comes back down to 2 ½ points. If it does, grab the Cyclones. Otherwise, consider buying a ½ point for piece of mind if it looks like the line starts to leak past 3. In my estimation the Cyclones are about a field goal better than the Huskies, and only because they’re playing in Ames. Don’t underestimate the power of home-field advantage in college athletics. If this was being played out in DeKalb, Illinois, I think the Huskies would be a slight favorite and a decent play. But having to travel to a BCS conference school in the first game of the season is likely too much to ask of these Huskies. One other advantage working in the Cyclones’ favor is the turmoil the city of Ames faced this summer. Massive flooding left Hilton Coliseum under nearly 6 feet of water. About 55,000 people were without drinking water for days. Ames – like all Iowa communities – is tight-knit. And they love their Cyclones. Jack Trice Stadium will be rocking Thursday night and that energy should propel the Cyclones to a hard-fought victory over Northern Illinois. Don’t look for a blowout, though. This under-the-radar game will be a battle.
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