Utah Utes at Pittsburgh Panthers
Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Pitt -7 1/2
Current Line: Pitt -7
Opening Total: 47
Current Total: 46 1/2
Opening Money Line: Pitt -270 / Utah +230
Current Money Line: Pitt -250 / Utah +210
The 2-3 Utah Utes travel to Pittsburgh to take on the 3-3 Panthers, with both teams hungry for a victory after a series of disappointing losses for both teams. Utah leads the series 2-0 against Pittsburgh including a 27-24 overtime victory last year in Salt Lake City last year. The only other match-up between the schools happened in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl with the Utes winning 35-7 to complete an undefeated season. Utah is coached by Kyle Whittingham has wins at home versus Montana St 27-10 and at arch-rival BYU 54-10. The Utes have three Pac 12 losses at USC 23-14, and home losses versus Washington 31-14, and last week 35-14 to Arizona St. Pitt is led by first year coach Todd Graham, and has home wins over Buffalo 35-16, Maine 35-29, and then #16 South Florida 44-17. The Panthers have losses at Iowa 31-27, at home against Notre Dame 15-12, and last week at Rutgers 34-10.
Utah took a 14-10 lead early in the third quarter last week, but Arizona St scored 25 unanswered points to win 35-14 and easily cover the 3.5 point college football betting line. The game also went over the 48.5 point total by half a point. Utah had 320 total yards and 17 first downs. Utah quarterback Jon Hays struggled as he subbed for Jordan Wynn who is out until at least late October with a shoulder injury. Hays was 18/30 passing for 199 yards, a touchdown, and 3 interceptions. In fact the Utes had 5 turnovers and 7 penalties in the game. ASU had 399 total yards, including 325 passing yards. The Sun Devils had 10 penalties but no turnovers.
Utah is averaging 346.8 total yards a game including 130.4 rushing yards. The Utes are scoring 24.6 points a game. Utah has 12 turnovers and has allowed 9 sacks. Utah is 26/74 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/17 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns. The Utes are giving up 367.6 yards a game including 99.4 rushing yards. Utah is allowing 21.8 points a game. The Utes have forced 13 turnovers and 9 sacks this season. Utah opponents are 36/89 on third and fourth down conversions, and 11/15 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns.
Wynn is 66/116 passing for 727 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Hays is 28/47 passing for 355 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Running Back John White IV has 92 carries, 500 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 5 catches, 23 yards, and a touchdown. He has more than double the carries of the rest of the team combined. Receiver DeVonte Christopher has 23 catches, 351 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dres Anderson has 14 catches, 213 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Dallin Rogers has 21 catches, 163 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Tight end Jake Murphy has only 3 catches but one of them went for a touchdown. Kicker Coleman Petersen is 15/16 on extra points and 4/6 on field goals with a long of 44 yards. Utah has 5 players including Wynn that are out indefinitely or for the season, and 5 players that are listed as questionable this week.
Pitt was a 6.5 point favorite last week on the college football betting line at Rutgers. However, Rutgers was up 6-3 at halftime and outscored the Panthers 28-7 in the second half to win 34-10. Each team had 271 total yards, and there were 15 penalties combined by both teams. The difference was Pitt had 4 interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown by Rutgers in the 4th quarter. Quarterback Tino Sunseri had 127 passing yards, no touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Running back Ray Graham was the only one doing anything on offense for the Panthers as he had 24 carries, 165 yards and a touchdown.
Pitt has averaged 379.2 yards a game including 173.7 rushing yards this season. Pitt is scoring 27.2 points a game. The Panthers have allowed 27 sacks and have 11 turnovers so far this season. They are 36/94 on third and fourth downs this season and 22/24 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns. On defense Pitt has allowed 390.5 yards, including 120.2 rushing yards a game. The Panthers are allowing 23.7 points a game. They have forced 7 turnovers and 14 sacks this season. Pittsburgh opponents are 40/109 on third and fourth down conversions, and 14/17 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.
Sunseri has struggled to pick up the nuances of Todd Graham’s no-huddle spread offense so far. He is 118/187 passing with 1,166 yards, 5 touchdowns and and 7 interceptions so far this season, along with 61 carries for 31 yards and a rushing touchdown. Running back Ray Graham has been the star of the offense so far with 150 carries for 899 yards and 9 touchdowns, along with 27 catches for 190 yards. Graham is listed as questionable for the Utah game with a hamstring injury. Zach Brown has 29 carries for 99 yards, and 3 touchdowns along with 7 catches for 46 yards. He will be the primary ball carrier if Graham can’t go. Receiver Devin Street has 20 catches, 283 yards, and a touchdown. Mike Shanahan (no relation to the Redskins coach of the same name) has 22 catches for 254 yards and a touchdown. Hubie Graham has 16 catches for 188 yards, and two touchdowns. Cameron Saddler has 16 catches for 141 yards and 1 touchdown. Kicker Kevin Harper has made 15 of 16 extra points and has made 10 out of 14 field goals. He has a long of 47 yards. The already beleaguered line will be without Lucas Nix and Chris Jacobsen who are both out with knee injuries. Linebacker Dan Mason is also out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Pitt is 2-4 against the spread this season and the total is 3-3 in those games. Utah is 1-4 ATS this season and the total is 2-3 in those games. Last year’s match-up was a push ATS as Utah was a 3 point favorite and it went over. The Utes are 34-16-1 ATS in the last 51 as an underdog, including 28-10-1 on the road, and 18-6-1 as a road underdog of between 3.5 and 10 points, 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 against Big East teams, 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games following a straight up loss, 2-5 ATS after a game where they failed to cover, and in their last 7 non-conference games, and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 overall. The Panthers are 5-0-1 ATS versus teams with losing records, 11-1 ATS in the last 12 following a straight up loss, 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 October games, 10-4 ATS following a game where they failed to cover, and 5-2 ATS as a home favorite of between 35. and 10 points.
I know Utah has to travel across country and play in a noon Eastern game, but if Ray Graham doesn’t play for Pitt I don’t know where the offense will come from for the Panthers. Utah has injury problems of their own with Wynn out,a nd struggled to move the ball against Arizoan St. I don’t see a lot of points in the Utah-Pitt game and Utah should be able cover the 7 point spread.
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