Louisville Cardinals at North Carolina Tar Heels
Kenan Stadium – Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Saturday, October 8, 2011, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: North Carolina -12 1/2
Current Line: North Carolina -13 1/2
Opening Total: 49
Current Total: 48
Opening Money Line: UNC -500 / Louisville +400
Current Money Line: UNC -550 / Louisville +450
North Carolina host Louisville this week in a matchup that would be one heck of a basketball game. However, they are playing football. It is still a decent football game. Louisville, is coached by Charlie Strong, and is 2-2 this season. The Cardinals have a home win over Murray St 21-9, and at Kentucky 24-17. The Cardinals have losses at home to Florida International 24-17, and Marshall last week 17-13. Louisville is 2-2 but could easily be 0-4 or even 4-0. North Carolina is 4-1 under interim coach Everett Withers. The only loss for the Tar Heels came at Georgia Tech two weeks ago 35-28. North Carolina has home wins over James Madison 42-10, Rutgers 24-22, and Virginia 28-17 along with a 35-20 victory at East Carolina last week. Louisville leads the series 3-2 against North Carolina, but they haven’t played since 2005. Louisville won that game easily 69-14 at home.
Louisville led Marshall 13-7 at halftime last week, but The Thundering Herd outscored the Cardinals 10-0 in the second half to pull off the 17-13 upset. Marshall scored a touchdown with less than 2 minutes to go on a 3 yard touchdown pass to win the game. Louisville had only 281 total yards in the loss, including just 60 rushing yards. The Cardinals had just 16 first downs. Mistakes doomed them, as they had 11 penalties and 2 turnovers. Marshall had 353 total yards and 21 first downs in the win. They had no turnovers and only 3 penalties. Louisville quarterback Will Stein missed the Marshall game with a shoulder injury and is questionable against North Carolina. Leading rusher Victor Anderson played but had an ankle injury and was limited to 6 carries for 24 yards. He did catch a touchdown pass. He is probable against North Carolina.
Louisville is averaging 360.2 yards and 18.8 points a game. The Cardinals are averaging 239 yards passing a game. The problem has been penalties and turnovers for the Cardinals. They have turned the ball over 8 times and are averaging just under 9 penalties a game. The Cardinals have also allowed 16 quarterback sacks this season, another problem area as it leads to a lot of 3rd and longs. Louisville has converted 29/68 third and fourth downs this season, and 6/8 scoring in the red zone with 4 touchdowns. Louisville is allowing 306.8 total yards and 16.8 point s a game. The Cardinals are allowing 85 rushing yards a game. Louisville has forced 1 sacks and 4 turnovers this season. Cardinal opponents are 30/71 on third and fourth down conversions, and 9/11 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns.
Stein is 49/79 passing with 615 yards, 5 touchdowns and an interception along with 22 carries for 2 yards. If Stein can’t go, Teddy Bridgewater will be the starter. Bridgewater is 32/50 passing for 341 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 19 carries for 12 yards and a touchdown. Anderson has 36 carries for 155 yards and a touchdown along with 11 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Wright has 36 carries for 136 yards, and 3 catches for 13 yards. Dominique Brown has 25 carries for 123 yards. Receiver Josh Chichester has 12 catches for 217 yards and no touchdowns. Michaelee Harris has 13 catches, 157 yards and 1 touchdowns. DeVante Parker has 9 catches, 141 yards and 3 touchdowns. Josh Bellamy has 12 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Chris Philpott is 9/10 on extra points and is 2/3 on field goals with a long of 30 yards. Louisville cornerbacks Stephan Robinson and Andrew Johnson are both questionable with ankle injuries. Cornerback Darius Ashley is suspended indefinitely.
North Carolina jumped out to a 28-3 halftime lead last week at East Carolina. The Pirates rallied but still lost 35-20. North Carolina easily covered the 6.5 point college football betting line. The Pirates actually had more total yards than the Tar Heels 490-456, but East Carolina had 4 turnovers. North Carolina had 226 rushing yards in the contest, led by Giovani Bernard who had 146 yards and a touchdown. Carolina quarterback Bryn Renner threw 4 touchdown passes in the win.
Through 5 games North Carolina is averaging 411 yards and 31.4 points a game. The Tar Heels are averaging 178.3 rushing yards a game. They have 9 turnovers and have allowed 8 sacks. Carolina is 23/53 on third and fourth down conversions and 15/18 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. North Carolina is allowing 381.8 yards and 20.8 points a game. The Tar Heels are allowing 123 rushing yards a game. North Carolina has forced 11 sacks and 9 turnovers. UNC opponents are 36/82 on third and fourth down conversions, and 13/18 scoring in the red zone with 7 touchdowns.
Renner is 87/115 passing for 1,127 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, along with 24 carries for 8 yards and a touchdown this season for the Tar Heels. Bernard has 78 carries for 548 yards, and 7 touchdowns along with 16 catches for 108 yards. Ryan Houston has 40 carries for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 5 catches for 60 yards. Receiver Dwight Jones has 33 catches for 514 yards and 6 touchdowns. Erik Highsmith has 14 catches, 210 yards, and a touchdown. Kicker Casey Barth is 11/11 on extra points and made one field goal of 46 yards. He is out with a pulled groin, and has missed the last two games as well. Thomas Moore is 11/11 on extra points but missed his only field goal attempt of the year.
North Carolina is 3-2 against the spread this year and the total is 2-3. Louisville is 1-3 ATS this season and the total is 0-3-1. The Cardinals are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 non-conference games, including 11-1 against ACC teams, 9-4 ATS in their 13 as an underdog of 10.5 points or greater, 4-0 in their last 4 road games, and 5-1 in the last 6 as a road underdog. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 October games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite of 10.5 points or greater, and 0-4 following a cover in the previous game.
This could get ugly in a hurry, because Louisville simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Tar Heels, especially if Stein is out. Louisville has played 4 games decided by 12 points or less, and three of them were a touchdown or less. That will change this week. Louisville’s defense might keep it close for a while, but Carolina should win handily.
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