Time: 3:30 PM EST Sat
TV: B10
Spread: MI ST -31
Total: 48
Betting Odds from Bookmaker
Last week the Spartans faced another ranked opponent in then No. 20 Notre Dame, and the going was rough after disposing of Central Michigan two weeks ago, and edging out then No. 24 Boise State in week one.
In the 20-3 loss, the Spartans managed only 50 rushing yards while committing the only turnover of the game, to a Notre Dame team that had 300 total yards, as Notre Dame got off to its best start in 10 years. Notre Dame’s defense was smothering, and Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly called it a “signature win.”
The Spartans should be able to avoid a signature loss this week against in-state rival Eastern Michigan, as college football oddsmakers have set the line at 31 points in favor of Andrew Maxwell and the Spartans.
Maxwell, a 6’3″ junior quarterback from nearby Midland, is having a tough time this year, with a 109.9 QB rating, while completing 57 percent of his passés for only 6.23 yards per pass. His 710 yards help the Spartans rank a little better than middle of the road in pass offense, with 252.3 per game (49th in the nation).
It has been the MSU defense that has enabled the Spartans to pull their two victories, and their stats are kind of inflated due to the fact that Central Michigan in week 2, and Eastern this week, are not worthy opponents. The Spartans are holding teams to 13.3 points per game, which ranks 18th best in the nation. The problem, of course, is that, once you throw out the Central Michigan game, the Spartans averaged only 18.5 points between the two games against AP opponents.
The fact that Eastern is far from a ranked opponent, however, could mean some very good things for the Spartans, who are picked by 56.1 percent of bettors to cover the spread. Bettors predict a higher total than that set by college oddsmakers, too, with 87.1 percent of bettors picking the total to go over 50. The good reason for this is because Eastern has allowed 40.7 points per game this season, ranking 116th in the nation, and their offense is putrid, too (18.7 points per game), so it will be mostly up to the Spartans to score the points required to put this one over.
The Eagles hung tough with an offensively loaded Ball State squad, but allowing 37 points doesn’t lead to a lot of victories, and the defense gave up 36 first downs and 596 total yards against Ball State, while allowing the Cardinals to have the ball for nearly 36 minutes of game play, as they converted seven of 15 third downs in the game. That kind of repeat performance will have bettors rubbing their fingers together in anticipation of a high scoring total in Saturday night’s game.
Eastern Michigan ATS Trends:
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 40+ points in previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following an SU loss of 20+, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring less than 20 points in the previous game.
Michigan State ATS Trends:
Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs the MAC, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS loss, and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Eastern Michigan O/U Trends:
OVER Is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games after scoring 20 or less the previous game, OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 on the road, OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 road games vs teams with winning home records, and UNDER is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 vs teams with winning records.
Michigan State O/U Trends:
OVER is 4-0-1 in Spartans last 5 vs MAC, OVER is 6-1 in Spartans last 7 following an SU loss, UNDER is 5-1-1 in Spartans last 7 in September, and OVER is 11-5 in the last 16 vs teams with losing records.
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