Navy Midshipmen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
High Point Solutions Stadium – Piscataway, New Jersey
Saturday, October 15, 2011, 2:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN Game Plan
Opening Line: Rutgers -3 1/2
Current Line: Rutgers -4
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 53 1/2
Opening Money Line: Rutgers -175 / Navy +155
Current Money Line: Rutgers -185 / Navy +165
Navy comes into this game on a 3 game losing streak. They try to right the ship as they travel to New Jersey to take on Rutgers. The two schools are less than 200 miles apart, and are meeting for the 24th time in history. The series is dead even 11-11-1, and Navy won the last meeting in 2008 at home 23-21. Navy, coached by Ken Niumatalolo, is 2-3 this season with wins at home over Delaware 40-17 and at Western Kentucky 40-14. Since then, Navy lost at South Carolina 24-21, and at home to Air Force 35-34 in overtime and last week at home to Southern Miss 63-35. The Midshipmen had plenty of chances to beat both South Carolina and Air Force and could easily be 4-1. Rutgers is coached by Greg Schiano is 4-1 this season with the only loss coming at North Carolina 24-22. The Scarlet Knights have home wins over North Carolina Central 48-0, Ohio 38-26, and last week against Pitt 34-10, along with a road win at Syracuse 19-16 in double overtime.
Navy was a 1 point favorite at home last week on the college football betting line over Southern Miss but soon found themselves down 28-0 in the second quarter before Navy finally got on the board with 5:29 left in half. Southern Miss scored again to make the halftime score 35-7. The two teams traded touchdowns in the second half to make the final 63-35. Neither team could stop the other one as Navy had 569 total yards including 421 rushing yards. Southern Miss had a more balanced attack with 584 total yards with 301 passing yards and 283 rushing yards. Southern Miss overcame 10 penalties and a turnover in the win. Navy didn’t make many mistakes as they only had 3 penalties and no turnovers, but USM’s first score occurred on a blocked field goal they ran all the back for a touchdown in the first quarter. Navy quarterback Kriss Proctor had 225 combined rushing and passing yards and 3 scores. Navy running back Delvin Diggs rushed for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Navy is averaging 463.4 yards a game, including the #1 ranked rushing attack with 366 rushing yards a game. Navy is scoring 34 points a game. Navy has allowed 3 sacks and 6 turnovers this season. Navy is 49/91 on third and fourth down conversions, and 16/21 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. The Midshipmen are allowing 408.2 yards a game and have one of the nation’s worst rush defenses allowing 220.8 yards a game. Navy is allowing 30.6 points a game. Navy has forced 10 turnovers and 4 sacks this year. Navy opponents are 39/69 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/22 scoring in the red zone with 17 touchdowns.
Proctor is the leading passer and rusher for Navy with 965 combined passing and rushing yards. He has 13 total touchdowns including 7 rushing touchdowns and has 3 interceptions. Fullback Alexander Teich has 79 carries for 408 yards, and a touchdown along with 3 catches for 16 yards. He was suspended last week against Southern Miss but is expected to return this week . Running back John Howell has 17 carries, 229 yards and 4 scores. Diggs has 21 carries, 111 yards, and 2 touchdowns, but he will get fewer carries if Teich returns as the starter. Aaron Santiago had 11 carries and two scores along with 2 catches and a touchdown but is out for the season with a broken arm. Matt Aiken, Gee Gee Greene and Brandon Turner are the top receivers but none has more than 6 catches, 136 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Kicker Jon Teague has missed 4 extra points in 22 tries and is 4/6 on field goals with a long of 54 yards.
Rutgers was a 6.5 point underdog last week at home against Pittsburgh. However, Rutgers was up 6-3 at halftime and dominated the second half outscoring the Panthers 28-7 to pull off the 34-10 upset. Both teams had 271 total yards, and under 14 first downs. The big difference was Pitt had 9 penalties and 4 turnovers and Rutgers only had one turnover. In fact, Rutgers returned an interception 45 yards for a touchdown late in the fourth. It was Logan Ryan’s second interception of the day. Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova threw for only 174 yards but did throw 2 touchdown passes without an interception.
Rutgers is 4-1 but they struggle to move the ball. The Knights average 314.8 yards a game including just 79.8 rushing yards a game. Only 5 other teams in the country rush for less yards a game than Rutgers. The passing attack averages 235 yards a game which is at least in the top 60 in the country. Rutgers is scoring 32.2 points a game. The Scarlet Knights have 8 turnovers and have allowed 11 sacks. Rutgers is 39/94 on third and fourth down conversions, and 19/23 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns. Rutgers is allowing just 299 yards a game including 94.2 rushing yards. Both are in the top 20 nationally. The Knights allow just 15.2 points a game. Rutgers has forced 22 turnovers and 20 sacks this season. Knight opponents are 23/70 on third and fourth down conversions, and 8/13 scoring in the red zone with 5 touchdowns. Rutgers has 4 defensive touchdowns this year.
Chas Dodd was the Rutgers quarterback but was benched for the Pitt game last week. Nova is now the starter but Dodd could see a series or two. Dodd is 69/127 passing for 754 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Nova is 32/68 passing for 412 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. Running back Jawan Jamison is the leading rusher with 91 carries, 243 yards, and no touchdowns, along with 4 catches for 44 yards. Savon Huggins only has 36 carries for 89 yards but has all 4 of the rushing touchdowns for Rutgers. Receiver Mohamed Sanu has 45 catches, 455 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The versatile Sanu also returns punts, and has a handful of carries and pass attempts for the Knights. Kicker San San Te is 17/17 on extra points and 12/16 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. Rutgers has 5 defensive players out for the season.
Rutgers is 5-0 against the spread this season and 4 of the 5 games have gone under the total. Navy is 3-2 ATS and 4 of the 5 games have gone over the total. Navy is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 as an underdog, 4-1 following a game where they failed to cover, 8-3 ATS versus teams with winning records, 8-3 ATS in teh last 11 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 6-2 on the road, 42-17 ATS in the last 59 as a road dog, 37-16 ATS on the road, and 1-5 ATS in the last following a straight up loss. Rutgers is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 following a cover, 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 overall, 4-0-1 in the last 5 on turf, 6-2 ATS in the last 8 versus independent teams, 1-7-1 ATS in the last 9 as a favorite of 3.5-10 points including 1-5-1 at home, and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 versus teams with losing records.
Navy’s problem the last two weeks has been defense. However, Rutgers isn’t nearly as explosive on offense as Air Force and Southern Miss are, so this could be just what Navy needs to get back on track. Of course Navy hasn’t faced a defense as stout as Rutgers except for perhaps South Carolina. This should be a close game, and Navy has a chance to pull off the mild upset.
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