Fresno St Bulldogs vs California Golden Bears
Candlestick Park, San Francisco, California
Saturday, September 3, 2011, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Comcast California
Opening Line: California -11 1/2
Current Line: California -10
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 49
Opening Money Line: Cal -350 / Fresno St +290
Current Money Line: Cal -365 / Fresno St +305
Fresno St and Cal open the season with a neutral site game at Candlestick Park in San Francisco. It is the first regular season college football game at the historic stadium, though it has hosted a few bowl games. This is the third meeting between the two schools with Fresno winning both previous games. The two teams haven’t played since 2002.
Fresno St finished last season 8-5 under long time coach Pat Hill. The season ended with the Bulldogs losing 40-17 to Northern Illinois in the Humanitarian Bowl. This season Fresno St is picked to finish second in the WAC behind Hawaii. California finished last season 5-7 under coach Jeff Tedford. Cal is picked by some to finish third in the Pac 12 North Division behind Oregon and Stanford.
Fresno St averaged 370.6 yards, and scored 29 points a game last season. The unit returns only 4 starters from a year ago. Sophomore Derek Carr, brother of former Bulldog quarterback David, takes over as quarterback for the graduated Ryan Colbrun. Carr sat out last season but threw a handful of passes in 2009. He adds another dimension to the offense as he is a much better runner than Colburn.
For a four game stretch last season, junior Robbie Rouse was arguably the best running back in the country. During that stretch, He rushed for 769 yards and 7 touchdowns. He battled injuries at the beginning and end of the season and ended up with 205 carries for 1,129 yards, and 8 touchdowns. He had 15 catches and 2 touchdowns last year as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a dangerous weapon. Michael Harris, A.J. Ellis, and UCLA transfer Milton Knox will also figure in the running game along with the quarterback Carr.
The Bulldogs return most of their top receivers including Rashad Evans, Jalen Saunders, A.J. Johnson, J.J. Stallworth, Josh Harper, Devon Wylie, and Isaiah Burse. They will all get significant catches, but Evans and Saunders will get the most targets. All of the receivers had at least 13 catches last year.
The defense gave up 370.8 yards a game and 30 points a game. They return 5 starters from that unit. The defense will be led by DT Logan Harrell and safety Phillip Thomas. They need to force more turnovers after only forcing 13 last year.
California returns 17 starters including 10 on offense. Cal averaged 335 yards a game last season and 26 points a game. The Bears must replace starting quarterback Kevin Riley but all of the other starters are back. The passing game was one of the worst in the country with 175 yards a game. Junior Zach Maynard, a transfer from Buffalo takes over at quarterback. He is a dual threat quarterback that had over 3,000 combined passing and rushing yards with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2009 at Buffalo.
Junior Isi Sofele will be the featured running back replacing Shane Vereen who was drafted by the Patriots. Sofele had 69 carries, 338 yards, and no touchdowns along with 5 catches and 2 touchdowns last year. Junior Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson and true freshman Brendan Bigelow to also get significant carries.
Senior Marvin Jones and junior Keenan Allen were the top two receivers last year and both return for the Bears. Jones had 50 catches, 765 yards, and 4 touchdowns last year. Allen had 46 catches, 490 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Senior tight end Anthony Miller looks to improve on his 13 catches last season but had to block and pass protect due to a leaky offensive line.
The Bears only gave up 320 yards and 23 points a game last season. They return 7 starters from that unit led by linebackers Mychal Kendricks and D.J. Holt. Defensive end Trevor Guyton and safety Sean Cattouse have the potential to be all conference players. The defense should still be strong but perhaps not as dominant as it was last year.
Fresno St is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against Pac 12 teams. Cal is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of between 3.5 and ten points. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against WAC foes. The over is 6-1 in Fresno’s last 7 against Pac 12 teams.
This is normally the kind of game Fresno either wins or keeps it close. They are playing a middling BCS school at a neutral site. Last season Fresno St beat Cincinnati and Illinois both in Fresno. I think Fresno has a legitimate shot to pull off the upset against Cal.
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