Army-Navy
Time: 3 PM ET, Sat Dec 11
TV: CBS
Spread: NAVY -15
Total: 56

Betting odds c/o Bovada

Navy is riding a two-game win streak with wins over Georgia Southern and South Alabama. The Midshipmen ranked No. 2 in the nation in rushing yardage, amassing 357.8 yards per game via the rush.

The 6-5 Navy team will be 15-point favorites against Army this week with college football oddsmakers at Bovada setting the total at 56 according to the NCAA spread.

Last week, Navy held off South Alabama by preventing a two-point conversion in the closing seconds. The Midshipmen held a 15 point lead going into the fourth quarter, but were outscored 20-7 in the final period. Navy outdrove South Alabama 430 to 415, while converting 40% of third-downs. Penalties affected South Alabama a lot, and even though Navy lost three fumbles, the Midshipmen had enough to get by.

Midshipmen junior QB Keenan Reynolds rushed for 1,082 yards this season while throwing for an additional 749. The 5’11” Reynolds averaged 5.3 yards per carry and tallied 20 touchdowns on the season. Other Midshipmen get in on the rush attack, particularly Noah Copeland who has rushed for 859 yards and sports an 8.2 yard per carry average.

Chris Swain, Geoffrey Whiteside, Ryan Williams-Jenkins and DeBrandon Sanders all have 200 yards or more on the season, as well.

The Midshipmen had 42 rushing TDs this year and just eight via the pass.

Army stands at 4-7 this season and much like Navy is a team that runs about every chance it has. The Black Knights rank 6th in the nation in rushing yardage (305.5) but get just 64.5 yards from the pass. The result is a middling 26.3 points per game, while the defense hasn’t been stingy enough to allow for that ineptitude.

Angel Santiago has thrown for 488 yards and rushed for 793 from the QB position. Larry Dixon is the primary ball carrier in the backfield, and he’s rushed for 793 yards on 182 carries (4.4 average) with a team-leading 10 rushing TDs. No Black Knight receiver has more than 200 yards on the season and there are six players with 200 rushing yards or more. Santiago’s nine TDs are second only to Dixon, and the Black Knights have scored 33 rushing TDs this season.

What should make the disparity between Navy and Army most apparent is how the teams have battled the few tough teams on their schedules.  Navy lost 34-17 to Ohio State Week 1, and fell 49-39 to Notre Dame on Nov. 1.  Navy led OSU 7-6 at the half, but Ohio State turned it around quickly with a 61-yard fumble return early in the third quarter.  Navy answered with a 1-yard TD run from Reynolds, but managed just a field goal the rest of the way.

Against Notre Dame, the Midshipmen held a three-point lead entering the fourth quarter but were outscored 21-8 in the final period.  As many say is often the case with borderline-type teams, the Midshipmen can hang around for a half with tougher schools.

Conversely, Army was blanked 35-0 by Stanford.  Thus, a 15-point advantage for Navy in the football lines is more than justified.

BETTING TRENDS:

Navy: OVER 4-0 in last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in previous game; OVER 4-0 in last 4 overall; OVER 4-0 in last 4 after accumulating less than 170 yards in previous game.

Army: OVER 5-0 in last 5 after allowing more than 450 yards in previous game; UNDER 4-0 in last 4 after allowing more than 280 yards in previous game; UNDER 9-0 in last 9 in Dec.

Head-to-head: UNDER 8-0 in last 8 meetings; Favorite 9-4 ATS in last 13 meetings.