College Football Betting Preview: A Look at Wisconsin-Whitewater-Mt. Union

NCAA Division III Championship Game
Wisconsin-Whitewater Warhawks vs Mt. Union Purple Raiders, Amos Alonzo Stagg Bowl, Salem, VA
Saturday, December 18, 2010, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Mt. Union -4
Current Line: Mt. Union -4
Opening Total: 42 1/2
Current Total: 42 1/2
Money Line: Mt. Union -185 / UWW +160

Mt. Union and Wisconsin-Whitewater play for the sixth straight time in the Division III Championship game.

These two teams are both 14-0 on the season and are very familiar with each other. This is the sixth straight year these two have met in the National Championship Game. Mt. Union holds a 3-2 advantage in the series, having won in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Whitewater won in 2007 and won 38-28 last year. These two teams have developed quite a rivalry despite not being geographically close. It is very similar to Tennessee and Connecticut in women’s basketball, where they were the two best teams for so long and met in the Final Four or National Championship seemingly every single year. Mt. Union has won 10 national championships since 1993 and has played in the national championship game every year since 1996 except 1999 and 2004. Mt. Union has outscored their 4 opponents 151-24 in four playoff games so far this season. Only Bethel scored 14 points against them and the Purple Raiders beat them by 20. Wisconsin-Whitewater has been slightly less dominant but are still outscoring their playoff opponents by more than a 2-1 margin 144-69.

The Wisconsin-Whitewater Warhawks are 14-0 on the season and are outscoring opponents 41-11 on the season. The Warhawks average 474 yards a game on offense, including 269 yards rushing a game. They give up 241 yards a game on defense, including a paltry 47 yards a game rushing. UWW has only allowed 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. They have forced 36 turnovers and have a turnover margin of +25. The Warhawks have forced 48 sacks on the year and only allowed 8 on their quarterback. The Warhawks are also converting 54% on third down, and only allowing opponents to convert 31%. They do struggle in the kicking game having missed 7 out of 21 field goal attempts and 4 PAT’s on the year. Matt Blanchard is the starting quarterback but has missed all four playoff games with an injury to his hand. He might be ready to play in the championship game but back-up Lee Brekke is expected to start. Both should see action regardless of who starts. Blanchard has thrown for 2,132 yards, 21 touchdowns and 1 interception in 10 games on the season. Blanchard also has 2 touchdown runs. Brekke has thrown for 722 yards, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in 8 games so far this season. Most of those stats were accumulated during the playoffs as he played only sparingly during the regular season mostly in mop-up duty. The top receiver is Aaron Rusch who has over 1,300 all-purpose yards and 16 touchdowns on the season. He returns kicks and punts for the Warhawks as well. Rusch even has a touchdown pass on the season. Adam Brandes has 60 catches, 1,126 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Levell Coppage is the leading rusher. He has 297 carries, 1,808 yards, and 22 touchdowns on the year.

Mt. Union is also undefeated on the season. They are outscoring opponents 40-7 on the season. Mt. Union is averaging 453 yards a game, including 187 yards rushing. The Purple Raiders have the nation’s top defense giving up only 197 yards a game, including 72 yards rushing. They have forced 43 turnovers on the season and have a turnover margin of +24. Mt. Union has forced 48 sacks on the season. The offense is led by quarterback Neil Seaman. Seaman has thrown for 3,120 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. However, Seaman was injured in the semifinal win, and back-up Matt Piloto will probably take some snaps as well. He has 5 touchdown passes on the year, but 4 came in the win against Bethel. Cecil Shorts is the leading receiver with 63 catches, 1,106 yards, and 17 touchdown catches. Shorts also returns kicks and punts, and has 3 more touchdowns in the return game. Six Raider receivers have at least 3 touchdown catches on the year. Jeremy Murray is the top rusher with 302 carries, 1,591 yards, and 20 touchdowns.

As mentioned these two teams are very familiar with each other. The senior class for these two teams have played each other 4 times. Wisconsin-Whitewater would love to even the series at 3 games a piece, but Mt. Union would love to win an 11th national title. These teams have the two best defenses in Division III but also have explosive offenses. Neither has faced a team as good as the other. These two rivals usually play close games. No team has won a game in the series by more than 16 points. I expect another close game.