College Football Betting Preview: A Look at Villanova-Eastern Washington

Football Championship Subdivision Semifinals
Villanova Wildcats at Eastern Washington Eagles, Roos Field, Cheney, WA
Friday, December 17, 2010, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Villanova -8
Current Line: Villanova -9 1/2
Opening Total: 54 1/2
Current Total: 54 1/2
Money Line: Villanova -400 / EWU +330

college football lines — Villanova is a 9 1/2 point favorite at Eastern Washington in FCS semifinal action Friday Night.

The defending FCS champion, the Villanova Wildcats finished the regular season with a disappointing 7-4 record and barely qualified for the playoffs. However they flipped the switch and have been dominant in two straight road upsets at Stephen F. Austin 54-24 and at number one seed Appalachian St 42-24. This week they travel to distant Cheney, Washington to play Eastern Washington in a stadium nicknamed the Inferno because of the unique red turf in the stadium. Eastern Washington is 11-2 on the season and is the number 5 over all seed in the tournament. Eastern Washington has beaten Southeast Missouri St 37-17 and beat North Dakota St in overtime last week 38-31. Both games were played at home for the Eagles. The game against North Dakota St was a wild affair played in a blizzard during the second half. It featured back to back kick-off returns to start the third quarter, 3 blocked field goals and 8 turnovers combined between both teams. The winner of this game will play the winner of Georgia Southern-Delaware in the Championship game January 7. It speaks volumes that Villanova is playing their third straight road game, and has to travel over 3,000 miles to play this game and are still almost a 10 point favorite and climbing.

Villanova has 4 losses on the season by a total of 24 points. They lost to Temple, William and Mary, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. Ironically, 3 of the the Wildcats losses are by the same score of 31-24. During the regular season, the Wildcats were averaging less than 28 points a game, and giving up just over 16 points a game. However, since the playoffs began the Wildcats are a completely different team, and are averaging 48 points a game in two games. For the season they are averaging 381 yards a game including just under 200 rushing yards a game. They are giving up 318 yards per game, including just under 100 yards rushing per game. They have a turnover margin of +13, and have forced 29 turnovers on the season. Villanova struggles in the kicking game having only converted 7 out of 14 field goal attempts, and have missed 2 PAT’s as well. The offense is led by dual threat quarterback Chris Whitney. Whitney has almost 2,700 combined rushing and passing yards, 33 combined touchdowns (22 passing) and 5 interceptions. The leading rusher besides Whitney is Aaron Ball who has 776 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. Villanova has two players that are dangerous at many positions. Wide receiver Matt Szczur has almost 1,000 total yards, rushing, receiving, passing, and returning punts and kicks. He has 6 total touchdowns on the season, including 2 passing out of the Wildcat formation. Running back Angelo Babbaro has over 1,500 total yards, rushing, receiving, and returning kicks. He has 8 total touchdowns including one kickoff return. He averages 23 yards per kick-off return. Norman White is the top receiver with 66 catches, 842 yards, and 11 touchdowns.

Eastern Washington has 2 losses on the season at Nevada 49-24 and at Montana St 30-7. Since the loss to Montana St, the Eagles have won 9 straight games, but 6 of those have been close, decided by 11 points or less. As mentioned the Eagles play on a red turf that is very similar to Boise St’s trademark blue turf. It certainly makes for a strange experience watching the game. In the second half against North Dakota St, the snow was falling heavily, and as it got closer to dusk, the stadium lights reflected off the snow and red turf giving the air a pink glow that made it look like they were playing after a nuclear holocaust. This is the first year the red turf has been installed and it has been difficult for teams to adjust. It is difficult for teams to see the ball as it blends into the red turf. The Eagles are undefeated at home and the strange turf might have something to do with it. EWU is outscoring opponents 32-25 on the season. They are averaging 402 yards a game, including 170 yards rushing. The Eagles are giving up 387 yards a game, including 136 yards rushing. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers but still have a turnover margin of -2. The Eagles have converted only 10 out of 19 field goal attempts, and have also missed 2 PAT’s. The offense is led by quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who has thrown for almost 3,000 yards, 30 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Brandon Kaufman is the team’s leading receiver with 59 catches, 959 yards, and 12 touchdowns. The top rusher is Taiwan Jones. Jones has rushed for over 1,700 yards, 221 carries, and 14 touchdown runs. Jones also has 3 touchdown catches. However, Jones is not expected to play against Villanova with a fractured bone in his foot. Darriell Beaumonte and Mario Brown will split the carries. They only have jsut over 400 yards, and 3 touchdowns between them, as Jones took the vast majority of the snaps. Jesse Hoffman has 3 kick-off returns for touchdowns this year including one last week against North Dakota St.

Being without Jones is a huge crippling loss as he is such a large part of the offense. Eastern Washington must protect the ball better, as Villanova has a very opportunistic defense. Villanova has been playing out of their minds during the playoffs, and they should have enough to cover the spread despite the long road trip. Temps will be in the low 20’s but no snow is expected.