College Football Betting Preview: A look at Utah St-Boise St

Utah St Aggies at Boise St Broncos, Bronco Stadium, Boise, ID
Saturday, December 4, 2010, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN Gameplan
Opening Line: Boise -39 1/2
Current Line: Boise -38
Opening Total: 61
Current Total: 61 1/2
Money Line: Boise -20000/ USU +7500

Boise State Football Lines — Boise St is trying to rebound from a devastating loss at Nevada last week at home versus Utah St. The Broncos are a 38 point favorite.

Outside of hardcore fans most people can’t name the kicker for Oregon, Auburn, TCU, Wisconsin, Stanford or any of the other elite programs in college football this year. However, after last week everyone knows the name of Boise’s kicker, Kyle Brotzman. That is what happens when you miss two kicks that are inside 30 yards in a span of 10 minutes, one at the end of regulation that would have won the game. Brotzman then missed another kick in overtime allowing Nevada to win 34-31. The Boise loss sent shock waves throughout the college football world. The Broncos went from a likely Sugar Bowl berth to playing in the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise or the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl in San Francisco. The difference is millions of dollars. Boise even had an outside shot of playing in the BCS Championship Game if Oregon or Auburn were to lose. All of that vanished in the chilly Reno air last Friday night. Boise can still clinch a share of their third straight WAC conference title with a win. This is the last Wac conference game for Boise as they leave for the Mountain West next year. Boise is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings against Utah St. Six of the last 7 have gone over the total.

Utah St is 4-7 on the year, but 5 of their losses are to teams going to a bowl this year. The schedule has been brutal with games versus Oklahoma, San Diego St, BYU, Hawaii, Fresno, Nevada, and now Boise. They beat BYU but lost the rest of those games. Utah St has been outscored 33-23 on the season. Utah St only averages 353 yards a game while they give up 427 yards a game. The Aggies have a turnover margin of -3. Utah St does struggle in kicking game, converting only 11 out of 17 field goal attempts. Utah St throws for less than 200 yards a game and only has 8 touchdown passes on the season. The quarterback is Diondre Borel. He has thrown for over 2,000 yards, all 8 touchdown passes for the Aggies, along with 11 interceptions. He also has 6 rushing touchdowns on 130 carries and 281 rushing yards. Dontel Watkins the Aggies’ leading receiver with 42 catches, 492 yards, and 4 touchdown catches. Utah St rushes for 161 yards a game led by Derrvin Speight who has 182 carries, 753 yards, and 8 touchdowns.

Brotzman took heat for the two missed field goals, as he should, but Boise’s defense has to take part of the blame as well for the loss. They were up by 17 points at one point in the game and let Nevada tie it up with 13 seconds to go. Coming into the game, Boise was giving up less than 300 yards a game but the Broncos gave up 528 yards to the Wolfpack last week along with 34 points. Only Virginia Tech had scored more than 24 points in a game against the Broncos for the season. Boise is still outscoring opponents 46-14 on the season even with the loss at Nevada. Boise averages over 525 yards a game on offense including 200 yards on the ground. Boise only gives up 256 yards a game, including 90 rushing yards a game. Boise has a turnover margin of +7. Boise has forced 41 sacks on the year while only giving up 7 themselves! In the first half this season Boise has outscored its opponents 324-45. The offense is led by quarterback Kellen Moore. Moore has put up some video game like numbers this season, throwing for just under 3,300 yards, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The loss at Nevada probably took Moore out of the Heisman race, but Moore has had a great year. Ten Bronco receivers have at least one touchdown catch. The top targets are Titus Young (61 catches, 1,117 yards, 9 touchdowns) and Austin Pettis (55 catches, 753 yards, 8 touchdowns). Tight end Tommy Gallarda only has 7 catches but has 3 touchdown catches. Doug Martin leads the rushing attack with 176 carries, 1,090 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Back-up Jeremy Avery ahs 10 touchdowns on 72 carries.

Boise should romp in this game if they can get over the hangover of the crushing Nevada defeat. Boise can still win the WAC Conference title with a win in this game. Utah St will have a hard time moving the ball against the stout Bronco defense. It will be in the 20’s for this game and heavy snow is expected in the Boise area in the days leading up to the game but it will be clear on game day. Boise will either be really angry and destroy the Aggies or they will come out flat and let Utah St hang around for a while. A first half bet on Utah St might not be a bad play.