College Football Betting Preview: A Look at UConn-South Florida

Connecticut Huskies at South Florida Bulls, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL
Saturday, December 4, 2010, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: South Florida -1
Current Line: South Florida -2
Opening Total: 41 1/2
Current Total: 41 1/2
Money Line: USF -130 / UConn +110

South Florida is a 2 point favorite at home against UConn. The Huskies can clinch a BCS berth with a win.

The 7-4 UConn Huskies can clinch the Big East’s lucrative BCS bid with a win at 7-4 South Florida. They also clinch the bid if both West Virginia and Pittsburgh lose earlier in the day. It is pretty much all or nothing for UConn as they will go to the Fiesta or Orange Bowl with a win and the Meineke Car Care Bowl with a loss. The Huskies are projected to play the winner of Oklahoma-Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl. That would be a great women’s basketball game but not so much for college football. Uconn is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 trips to Tampa. USF is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games in the series. The Huskies are 17-6 ATS in all games over the last two years, including 10-2 as an underdog in the same stretch. The Huskies are 6-0 on the road at teams with winning records over the last two years.

UConn has won 4 games in a row since losing to Rutgers and Louisville. The four game streak includes wins over West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse and Cincinnati. The Huskies are playing their best football of the season and that is the reason they are in the driver’s seat for the Big East. They are outscoring opponents 28-20 on the season. The Huskies sometimes struggle to move the ball as they only average 334 yards a game on offense. The defense only gives up 356 yards a game. UConn has a turnover margin of +11, and they have forced 27 sacks this season. UConn has had some trouble finding a quarterback. Zach Fraser was benched for two games in favor of Cody Endres. Endres quit the team and Fraser has started every game since then, coincidentally all four games on the winning streak. Fraser has thrown for 1,090 yards, 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. UConn only averages 148 yards a game passing the ball. The top receivers for UConn are Michael Smith (36 catches, 537 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Kashif Moore (31 catches, 372 yards, and 4 touchdowns.) The strength of the offense is Jordan Todman and the running game. Todman has rushed for just under 1,500 yards on 269 carries, with 14 touchdowns. Back-up Robbie Frey has 4 rushing touchdowns. The Huskies sometimes struggle in the kicking game as they have only converted 19 out of 25 field goal attempts.

South Florida is 7-4 with losses to Florida, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh. They are projected to go to the BBVA Compass Bowl in Birmingham whether they win or lose this game. The Bulls have outscored opponents 24-20 on the season. They only average 310 yards a game on offense, and they give up 328 yards a game on defense. The Bulls have a turnover margin of -1. They have forced 28 sacks on the year and allowed 24. South Florida’s offense is led by quarterback B.J. Daniels. he has thrown for 1,496 yards, 9 touchdowns and 12 interceptions The Bulls only throw for 160 yards a game. The top receivers for USF are Dontavia Bogan (38 catches, 588 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Evan Landi (23 catches, 326 yards, 2 touchdowns). South Florida rushes for 151 yards a game led by Moise Plancher (147 carries, 684 yards, 4 touchdowns), Demetris Murray (104 catches, 460 yards, and 4 touchdowns). South Florida only converts 27% of the time on third down and struggle in the kicking game as well converting only 14 out of 21 field goals.

These two teams are very similar. Both win with the running game and dominant defenses. Don’t expect a lot of scoring in this game. South Florida must protect the ball from the UConn defense who forces a lot of turnovers.