Texas A&M Aggies at Baylor Bears, Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco, TX
Saturday, November 13, 2010, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: Fox Sports Net
Opening Line: Texas A&M -3
Current Line: Texas A&M -3 (-105)
Opening Total: 63
Current Total: 64 1/2
Money Line: TAMU -150 / Baylor +130
Texas A&M is 6-3 and on a three game winning streak. Baylor is 7-3 and bowl eligible for the first time since 1994. The Aggies changed quarterbacks several weeks ago from the error prone Jarrod Johnson to Ryan Tannehill, and the Aggies are a completely different team. Baylor meanwhile is licking their wounds after Oklahoma St ripped them 55-28 last week. Both of these teams can still win the Big 12 South if they win out and get some help. Both of these teams need a win badly. The Aggies are 13-2 straight up in the last 15 against Baylor and 10-5 ATS in the same span. However, A&M lost 41-21 the last time they played in Waco.
Last week, the Aggies beat Oklahoma 33-19. They held the high octane Sooner attack to only 362 total yards including only 72 yards rushing. For the season, Texas A&M is outscoring their opponents 34-21 and outgaining them 474-347 yards a game. The Aggies have a turnover ratio of -5 and have forced 19 sacks. The Aggies do have problems protecting the quarterback as they have allowed 30 sacks for the season. Since taking over at quarterback, Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 854 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Tannehill also has a rushing touchdown. Jeff Fuller (58 catches, 886 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Ryan Swope (57 catches, 655 yards, 3 touchdowns) catch most of the passes. Christine Michael (126 carries, 631 yards, and 4 touchdowns) and Cyrus Gray (99 carries, 536 yards, 6 touchdowns) do most of the running. Tannehill doesn’t run as much as former QB Jerrod John as he is more of a dropback passer.
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Baylor scored two late touchdowns to make the score closer than it was last week at Oklahoma St but the Bears were thoroughly dominated in every phase of the game in the Cowboys’ 55-28 victory. Baylor is still having their best season in years, they have been beaten soundly by TCU and Oklahoma St. In fact you could argue that Baylor’s only quality wins are over Kansas St and a struggling Texas team. It doesn’t get any easier for the Bears as they finish with Texas A&M and Oklahoma. For the season, Baylor is outscoring it’s opponents 34-26 and outgaining them 488-424 yards a game. They have a turnover margin of +2 and have forced 19 sacks for the season. The Bears will only go as far as talented quarterback Robert Griffin III will take the, but he has been brilliant so far. The dual threat QB has over 3,200 combined rushing and passing yards, including 2,800 through the air. Griffin has 27 combined touchdowns (20 passing) and 6 interceptions. Five Bear receivers have at least 31 catches but Kendall Wright, Josh Gordon, and Terrance Williams have 17 of the Bears’ 21 touchdown catches. The Bears rush for 188 yards a a game led by Griffin and running back Jay Finley (138 yards, 904 yards, and 8 touchdowns).
I think this line is a reflection of what happened last week. I feel that if Baylor had shown a better effort last week, I think they would have been favored in this game. Baylor has long been the whipping boy of the Southwest conference and later the Big 12. This year has been a different story. Baylor has already beaten Texas this season and would love to beat their other in-state conference rival to prove that the “little brother” has grown up.
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