Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Bulldogs, Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Saturday, October 9, 2010, 12:21 pm Eastern, TV: SEC Network, ESPN Gameplan pay-per-view
Opening line: Georgia -10
Current Line: Georgia -11
Opening Total: 50 1/2
Current Total: 48
Money Line: Georgia -450 / Tennessee +350
CBS and ESPN get their first choice of the SEC games every week. The SEC’s own network get whatever is left. It is telling that a game between these two traditional powers was left to choose. Both of these teams have struggled so far this season. Tennessee is 2-3 under first year coach Derek Dooley after a heartbreaking 16-14 loss at LSU. Georgia is 1-4 and has lost 4 straight games. coach Mark Richt’s job is in jeopardy, and the Dawgs are hungry for a win, as are the Vols. Tennessee has had some success in October road games since 1992 going 23-7 against the spread. They have also done well in bounce-back games on the road, going 16-6 ATS in road games after losing to a conference rival the week before. Until this recent stretch Georgia was 13-3 against the spread after losing 2 or more games straight up since 1992. They have struggled to cover the spread in conference games in the last 3 seasons going 4-13.
Tennessee had the game won last week at LSU. They stopped the Tigers on the last play of the game from scoring to hold on to what they thought was a 14-10 victory, but the Volunteers were called for too many men on the field giving the Tigers another chance. they scored to win 16-14. Tennessee was outgained 434 yards to 217 and was only in the game due to 4 LSU turnovers. The main problem for Tennessee is they are giving up over 375 yards a game and only gaining 323 yards themselves. Protecting the quarterback remains a problem for Tennessee as they are giving up almost 5 sacks a game. Quarterback Matt Simmsis throwing for less than 200 yards a game, with only 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His top target is wideout Denarious Moore who has 239 yards on 16 catches and 4 touchdowns. Running back Tauren Poole is talented but the offensive line is shaky, making it difficult for him to find holes. He has 427 yards on 80 carries and 4 touchdowns. The Volunteers are only converting 25 percent of 3rd and 4th downs, leading to a lot of three and outs.
Star wide receiver A.J. Green returned in a big way for Georgia after his 4 game suspension for violating NCAA rules. He had 7 catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns but the Bulldogs still lost 29-27 at Colorado. It is difficult to say what has been the problem during the 4 game losing streak. The Bulldogs are outgaining their opponents 363-323 and don’t turn the ball over much. They have allowed 12 sacks in 5 games, and are giving up more than 6 penalties a game, so perhaps that is the problem. After scoring 55 points to open the season against Louisiana Lafayette, the offense is only averaging 17 points a game, but are giving up more than 25 points a game. Quarterback Aaron Murray has been decent throwing for 220 yards a game with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Murray also has two rushing TD’s. It is telling that despite missing the first 4 games Green is the team’s third leading receiver. Kris Durham and Tavarres King were solid in replacing Green. Durham has 324 yards and a touchdown catch. The running game is gaining 137 yards a game with a trio of backs who split the carries, Washaun Ealey, Caleb King, and Carlton Thomas.
These two proud programs were expected to compete for division titles, but now both are behind perennial doormat Vanderbilt in the conference standings. The boosters will not stand for that, and the winner of this game can alleviate the pressure at least for another week. The line seems a little high to me as both of these teams have all sorts of problems on both sides of the ball.
