South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats, Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY
Saturday, October 16, 2010, 6:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: South Carolina -7
Current Line: South Carolina -4 1/2
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 55
Money Line: South Carolina -200 / Kentucky +170
Bettors apparently see a letdown for South Carolina this week after they upset top ranked Alabama last week and travel to Kentucky this week. The line opened with the Gamecocks as a 7 point favorite, but has dropped to -4 1/2. Kentucky is 3-3 and has lost 3 games in a row in conference to Florida, Ole Miss and Auburn. Kentucky has lost 7 straight conference games at home. South Carolina has done well on grass recently going 5-2 against the spread, but are only 2-5 as a favorite ATS. The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last meetings with Kentucky. These two teams have gone over 4 out of the last 5 times they have played, but strangely the under is 4-1 the last five meetings in Kentucky. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Steve Spurrier is 17-0 against Kentucky in his coaching career. The Gamecocks are looking to win a division title in the SEC East as traditional powers Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee all have at least 2 conference losses. The Gamecocks are 4-1 with the only loss coming at Auburn 35-27. The Gamecocks are outscoring their opponents 158-94, and have forced 19 sacks and 8 turnovers. They are giving up 365 yards a game but less than 20 points a game. The offense is led by quarterback Stephen Garcia who had the best game of his career last week vs Alabama throwing for 3 touchdown passes and one interception. For the season Garcia has thrown for 944 yards 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He also has two rushing touchdowns. Garcia frustrates Steve Spurrier sometimes with his poor work ethic and bad decision making. The rushing attack is led by Marcus Lattimore who has 107 carries for 459 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Wideout Alshon Jeffrey is Garcia’s top target with 34 catches for 625 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Kentucky’s high powered offense is scoring 36 points a game led by versatile receiver Randall Cobb, who has 11 total touchdowns this season, including 3 passing touchdowns. If you include return yards, Cobb has over 1050 all-purpose yards. The Wildcats have a balanced attack led by quarterback Mike Hartline (1,442 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions) and running back Derrick Locke (108 carries, 574 yards and 7 touchdowns). Cobb is the teams leading receiver with 32 catches, 403 yards and 4 touchdowns. Chris Matthews has 5 touchdown catches and 305 yards as well. The Wildcats are giving up over 30 points a game. On defense they are giving up 343 yards a game, but aren’t forcing a lot of turnovers. They only have 6 in six games, but do have 11 sacks. Kentucky is vulnerable against the run giving up just over 190 yards a game but has been effective at stopping the passing game of opponents giving up only 153 yards a game through the air, and the Wildats have only allowed 6 passing touchdowns.
Kentucky has only allowed 3 sacks this season, and South Carolina has 19 sacks for the year. The battle between the Gamecock’s front seven and Kentucky’s strong offensive line will decide this game. Kentucky will look to depend heavily on Cobb, Locke, and Hartline to find holes in the South Carolina defense. South Carolina might have to depend on Marcus Lattimore to run the ball as Kentucky is very strong against the pass.
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