San Diego St Aztecs at Texas Christian Horned Frogs, Amon Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Saturday, November 13, 2010, 4:00 pm Eastern, TV: Versus
Opening Line: TCU -27
Current line: TCU -27
Opening Total: 51 1/2
Current Total: 53 1/2
Money Line: TCU -3000 / SDST +1500
San Diego St is 7-2 and is 6 points away from being undefeated. They lost at Missouri on a long touchdown pass in the last minute of the game 27-24. They also lost at BYU 24-21 last month. They are just outside of the top 25, and are still 27 point road underdogs this week. That is mainly because of their opponent this week. They travel to Fort Worth this week to take on #3 TCU who is coming off a 47-7 dismantling of Utah last week on the road. TCU can clinch at least a share of the Mountain West Conference title with a win, but the Frogs have much bigger goals in mind. They have a shot of playing for the BCS championship game if they win out and Auburn and/or Oregon stumbles. The Aztecs can win the Mountain West title as well if they beat TCU, Utah and UNLV. TCU has won 5 games in a row straight up in the series and has covered 25 point spreads the last two years. TCU is 12-3 against the college football spreads in home games in the last three seasons. The Frogs are 16-6 ATS against conference opponents in the same span, as well as 21-8 ATS on Saturday.
The Aztecs are on a 4 game winning streak and are bowl eligible for the first time since 1998. They are outscoring their opponents 34-20 and outgaining them 435-336. The Aztecs pass for 271 yards a game led by quarterback Ryan Lindley who has thrown for 2,426 yards, 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown catch most of the passes for the Aztecs. Both have at least 43 catches. Sampson has 6 TD’s and Brown has three. Tight end Gavin Escobar only has 16 catches but 3 of them are for touchdowns. The Aztecs rush for 164 yards a game led by Ronnie Hillman who has 188 carries for 1044 yards with 12 touchdowns. The Aztecs have a dominant defense and only allow 141 yards rushing a game. They have also forced 22 sacks. The Aztecs do have a turnover ratio of -3 and give up over 50 penalty yards a game.
TCU so thoroughly dominated Utah last week that a Utah assistant coach approached Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson after the game and told him TCU could have won by 100 points if they wanted to. The Frogs held the previously explosive Utes offense to 199 total yards including only 51 on the ground, and forced 4 turnovers. The Horned Frogs have arguably the best defense in the country. They are only allowing 216 yards a game and less than 9 points a game. They have a turnover margin of +8 and have forced 21 sacks. Only SMU and Oregon St have scored more than 21 points against the Frogs. In fact only Baylor has scored even 10 points or more. TCU has only allowed 11 total touchdowns for the season, and in fact opponents have only been in TCU’s red zone 11 times, (scoring 6 touchdowns). TCU is also holding opponents to a 24% success rate on third down conversions, which explains why opponents are punting 7 times a game on average against them. The TCU defense is dominant certainly but the offense isn’t bad either. TCU scores 41 points a game and gains 493 yards a game, including 262 yards a game on the ground. The Frogs have 33 touchdown runs for the season. Ed Wesley (150 carries, 988 yards, 11 touchdowns) and Matthew Tucker (113 carries, 510 yards, 6 touchdowns) take most of the carries but quarterback Andy Dalton has 70 carries for 418 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dalton is a contender for the Heisman Trophy with a quarterback rating of 166.7. Dalton has thrown for over 2,200 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Four TCU receivers have at least 21 catches and 3 touchdown catches. While TCU’s offensive numbers aren’t as impressive as say Oklahoma St or Oregon, you have to keep in mind, most of the time starters are resting in the fourth quarter or sometimes even the 3rd because the Frogs are up by so many points.
TCU is clearly the better team here but they might be in for a little bit of an emotional letdown after the destruction of Utah. San Diego St is a quality opponent and is better than people think. TCU has won 23 straight regular season games, which explains why they are a four touchdown favorite. I don’t think San Diego St is talented enough to beat TCU but don’t be surprised if they cover the huge number.
On Saturday we have 8 college football picks going including a rare 20 unit play. We have won 75% of our 20 unit releases this season and are expecting another easy winner on this game. Visit the NCAA football picks page and start your weekend off a winning note.
