Pittsburgh Panthers at Cincinnati Bearcats, Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Saturday, December 4, 2010, 12:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: pick
Current Line: Cincinnati -2
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 54 1/2
Money Line: Cincinnati -130 / Pitt +110
After winning the Big East Conference title two years in a row, Cincinnati regressed this year and won’t even qualify for a bowl game this year. They are a disappointing 4-7 on the year under first year coach Butch Jones. Pittsburgh meanwhile is 6-5. The have lost 2 out of their last three to UConn and West Virginia. Pittsburgh had a 2 game lead in the conference standings before that and now they don’t even control their own destiny to win the Big East. Pitt needs to beat Cincinnati and hope West Virginia loses to Rutgers and South Florida upsets UConn in order for the Panthers to go to a lucrative BCS bowl. These two teams usually play high scoring games against each other. Four of the last five meetings have gone over the total between the two teams. The Bearcats have won two games in a row in the series both straight up and ATS. Cincinnati is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 December games.
Pitt is 6-5 on the season with the losses coming to 5 bowl teams, Utah, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, UConn, and West Virginia. There is a small chance that if Pitt loses this game that they might be overlooked for a bowl bid in favor of 6-6 Louisville. I don’t see it happening as Pitt beat Louisville earlier in the season rather handily 20-3. Pitt needs to win here to take the doubt out of their bowl chances. Pitt has outscored their opponents 26-21 on the season, and the Panthers average 362 yards a game including 147 rushing yards per game. Pitt only gives up 308 yards per game, including only 118 rushing yards a game. The Panthers have a turnover margin of -2. The Panthers are led on offense by freshman quarterback Tino Sunseri. Sunseri has had some growing pains as he learned the offense this season. He has thrown for 2,318 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season. He also has a rushing touchdown. Jon Baldwin (47 catches, 753 yards, 5 TD catches) and Mike Shanahan (40 catches, 556 yards, 1 touchdown) are the top receivers for the Panthers. The Panthers rushing attack is led by Ray Graham (130 carries, 825 yards, and 8 touchdowns) and Dion Lewis (155 yards, 695 yards, and 8 touchdowns). Lewis has had a somewhat disappointing season by his standards as he was on the pre-season Heisman watch list. Both Lewis and Graham are also dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. both have at least 23 catches, but Graham has 2 touchdown catches.
Cincinnati has had a disappointing 4-7 season, but the schedule has been difficult as they replaced their head coach, top quarterback, and wide receiver. The Bearcats are outscoring their opponents by a razor thin margin of 28.6-28 this season. Cincinnati is averaging 431 yards a game on offense, including 157 yards a game rushing. The Bearcats give up 364 yards a game on defense, including 123 rushing yards. Cincinnati struggles with turnovers, penalties and protecting the quarterback. They have a turnover margin of -12, give up 65 yards a game in penalties, and allow almost 3 sacks a game. The offense is led by Zach Collaros. Collaros has thrown for 2,793 yards along with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Collaros also has 4 rushing touchdowns on 107 carries. Armon Binns (72 catches, 1,072 yards, and 10 touchdown catches) and D.J. Woods (56 catches, 890 yards, and 8 touchdowns) are the top receivers for the Bearcats. The Bearcats rushing attack is led by Isaiah Pead. Pead has 138 carries, 932 yards, and 6 touchdown runs. Pead also has a touchdown catch.
Snow is expected and the temps will be in the low 30’s for this game. Last year the teams played a memorable game in a snowstorm and Cincinnati won 45-44. I expect another shootout, between two teams that don’t like each other very well. Though on paper Pitt has everything to play for and Cincinnati is just playing out the string, records don’t really matter in a rivalry game like this.
Our college football handicappers are releasing winners every day. We will be releasing our Bowl picks in a couple of weeks but we have winners for this last week of the regular season in the meantime.
