College Football Betting Preview: A Look at Nevada-Louisiana Tech

Nevada Wolf Pack at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA
Saturday, December 4, 2010, 3:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN Gameplan
Opening Line: Nevada -13
Current Line: Nevada -8
Opening Total: 70 1/2
Current Total: 69
Money Line: Nevada -325 / LTU +275

The Nevada Wolf Pack are 8 point road favorites at Louisiana Tech in a crucial WAC showdown.

The line on this game has dropped 5 points and I don’t know why. There are no significant injuries for Nevada. Perhaps Bettors think that Nevada’s 34-31 upset victory over previously undefeated Boise St last week was a fluke and Nevada isn’t that good. They would be mistaken in that belief, as Nevada only has one loss on the season at Hawaii, always a tough place to play. More likely, bettors believe Nevada is due for a letdown after the emotional victory over Boise and must travel 3,000 miles to play a tough Louisiana Tech team that needs a victory to become bowl eligible. Nevada is playing for a share of the WAC Conference Title. Both Nevada and Boise St can tie Hawaii with victories. All three would be 7-1 and the tiebreaker is the highest ranked team in the BCS. Boise plays Utah St and Hawaii finishes with a non-conference game versus UNLV. Both Boise and Hawaii are playing home games. Louisiana Tech is 11-3 ATS in home games in the last 3 seasons. The Bulldogs are also 8-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Nevada has owned the series recently going 4-1 ATS against Louisiana Tech. Six of the ten meetings between the schools have gone over the total.

In the upset over Boise last week, Nevada showed a lot of tenacity and grit coming back from a 17 point halftime deficit to win in overtime 34-31. Yes, there was some luck involved with Boise kicker Kyle Brotzman missing a 26 yard field goal at the end of regulation that would have won the game and a 29 yarder in overtime that would have sent the game into double overtime. Nevada is trying to win a share of its first conference title since 2005. Nevada is outscoring opponents 43-23 on the season. The Wolf Pack average 537 yards a game including 301 rushing yards a game which is the fourth best rushing attack in the country. They give up 384 yards a game on defense including only 126 yards rushing a game. Nevada has a turnover margin of plus 6 and are forcing almost 3 sacks a game. The Wolf Pack do well at converting on third down converting at a 55% rate on third down and 74% on fourth. The offense is led by dual-threat quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is a finalist for many of the post-seasons awards, including the Manning and Maxwell Awards. He has 3,700 combined rushing and passing yards along with 37 total touchdowns (20 passing) and 7 interceptions on the season. Nine Nevada receivers have at least one touchdown catch, but Rishard Matthews, Brandon Wimberly, Virgil Green, and Malcolm Shepherd are the top receivers. Besides Kaepernick, the rushing attack is led by Vai Taua. Taua has 1,372 rushing yards, and 17 touchdowns on 233 carries. Taua also has 3 touchdown catches. Eight Nevada players have at least one rushing touchdown. Back-up Lampford Mark will miss the game with an injury but they ahve enough depth at running back to overcome the loss.

Louisiana Tech is 5-6 and can go to a bowl game with a win here. All six of their losses are to teams that will play in a bowl this year. The Bulldogs do not have a victory over a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are being outscored on the season 30-28. Louisiana Tech averages just under 400 yards a game, including 177 yards rushing. They do struggle on defense, though as they give up 457 yards a game, including 155 yards rushing a game. The Bulldogs have a turnover margin of -5. The offense is led by quarterback Ross Jenkins. Jenkins missed three games early in the season due to injury, but has thrown for 1,572 yards, 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Jenkins also has 3 rushing touchdowns. The top receivers are Taulib Ikharo (46 catches, 445 yards, and 3 touchdown catches) and Richie Casey (42 catches, 432 yards, 3 touchdown catches). Seven Bulldog receivers have at least one touchdown catch. The Bulldog rushing attack is led by Lennon Creer, who has 194 carries, 1,132 yards, and 10 touchdown runs. Seven Bulldogs have at least one rushing touchdown.

Louisiana Tech will have a hard time stopping the powerful Nevada attack. Nevada must rein in their emotions and avoid a let down. The lure of winning a conference title might be enough to overcome the long road trip.