College Football Betting Preview: A Look at Louisville-Rutgers

Louisville Cardinals at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
Friday, November 26, 2010, 11:00 am Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Louisville -4
Current Line: Louisville -3 (-115)
Opening Total: 46
Current Total: 45 1/2
Money Line: Louisville -150 / Rutgers +130

Joe Martinek and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 3 point underdogs at home against Louisville in a must win game for both teams.

Coach Charlie Strong takes his 5-6 Louisville Cardinals on the road to take on Greg Schiano and his 4-6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The winner of this game will still be alive to go to a bowl game, though Rutgers would have to still win at West Virginia next week. Louisville completes their regular season with this game at Rutgers and needs only to win to be bowl eligible. Rutgers is trying to go to a fifth consecutive bowl game for the first time in the program’s history. Rutgers has won 7 of the 9 games in the series straight-up. Louisville is 5-15 ATS against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons. Rutgers hasn’t done well against the number this season going only 2-8 ATS. Rutgers is 2-9 at home ATS in the last two seasons. The last four games in the series have gone over the total.

Louisville has lost two games in a row at home to South Florida in OT 24-21 and to West Virginia 17-10. In fact all of the Cardinals’ losses this season have been by a touchdown or less except for a 20-3 defeat at Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are outscoring opponents 25-19 and outgaining them 371-302 yards per game. The Cardinals’ struggles on offense are responsible for their mediocre record. They have a turnover margin of +1 and have forced 28 sacks. They do give up 64 yards a game in penalties. Quarterback Adam Froman has missed the last three games with a deep thigh bruise and is listed as questionable for the game against Rutgers. Froman has thrown for over 1,600 yards in just 8 games, along with 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Froman also has two rushing TD’s. If Froman can’t go, 5th year senior Justin Burke will go as the QB. Burke has thrown for 150 yards a game since replacing Froman 3 games ago. He has 6 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in the three games. Six Cardinal receivers have at least 14 receptions. Louisville rushes for 177 yards a game led by Bilal Powell. Powell has rushed for over 1,200 yards in just 10 games this season with 9 touchdowns on 188 carries. He also has a touchdown catch. Last week West Virginia completely shut him down holding him to 0 yards on just 4 carries. Jeremy Wright has only 51 carries but he does have 3 touchdown runs.

Rutgers has lost 4 games in a row after an emotional 23-20 overtime victory over bowl bound Army. In that game Rutgers defensive lineman Eric LeGrande was paralyzed from the neck down. It was announced today that LeGrande has been taken off a ventilator and is breathing on his own. That is very good news for his family and teammates just before the holidays. The four game losing streak includes a 69-38 thrashing at Cincinnati last week. It speaks volumes about the quality of the Big East that deeply flawed teams like Louisville and Rutgers are still alive for bowl births with wins. The Knights have been up and down all season as they won their first 2 games, lost the next 2, won the next 2, and then lost 4 in a row. The Knights have been outscored 24-22 on the season and have been outgained 354-300 yards a game. The Knihgts have a turnover ratio of -7 and are allowing more than 4 sacks a game. Rutgers struggles to convert on 3rd and 4th downs converting on 31% on third and 40% on fourth. They also struggle in the red zone, have only a 35% touchdown percentage. The best player for Rutgers is receiver Mark Harrison. He has 35 catches, for 681 yards and 8 touchdowns. Rutgers only rushes for 99 yards a game led by Mohamed Senu and Joe Martinek. Both have 4 touchdown runs. Senu also has 41 catches and two touchdowns. Senu has even thrown for 3 touchdowns out of the wildcat formation. Quarterback Chas Dodd takes most of the snaps but Tom Savage takes about 10 snaps a game. Dodd has thrown for 1,31 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Savage has thrown for 521 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

Freezing rain or even snow is likely for the game depending on cold the temperatures get. Bettors should keep an eye on the quarterback situation for both teams but I don’t think it will really matter. Both of these teams struggle on offense but have decent defenses. I expect a close low scoring battle between two teams that need a win to keep their hopes alive for going to a bowl. I know this game doesn’t sound very exciting but it is the first game on television on the day after Thanksgiving. What else are you going to do, go to the mall and battle the crowds?