Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
Saturday, October 23, 2010, 12:00 pm, TV: Big Ten Network Alternate
Opening Line: Illinois -12
Current Line: Illinois -14
Opening Total: 53
Current Total: 55
Money Line: Illinois -525 / Indiana +425
Coach Bill Lynch takes his 4-2 Indiana Hoosiers on the road to take on Ron Zook’s 3-3 Illinois Fighting Illini. Indiana’s two losses are to Michigan and Ohio St, and they need to go 3-3 in their last 6 games in order to become bowl eligible. Illinois is 3-3 but it’s three losses are to highly ranked Missouri, Ohio St, and Michigan St. This is almost a must win for both of these teams if they hope to become bowl eligible given the difficulty of the Big Ten. Illinois has not well against the spread at home going 40-63 since 1992. They also haven’t done well on turf going 55-86 ATS since 1992.
Indiana is scoring 34 points a game led by quarterback Ben Chappell who is throwing for 310 yards a game. Chappell has thrown for 16 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. Overall, the Hoosiers are gaining 420 yards a game. Chappell spreads the ball around as 5 Hoosier receivers have at least 2 touchdown catches. However, DeMarlo Belcher, Tandon Doss, and Terrance Turner are Chappell’s top targets. All have at least 32 catches. Tight End Ted Bolser is also a dangerous weapon and has 4 touchdown catches. The Hoosiers don’t have to run the ball that much with their prolific passing game, but Darius Willis (64 carries, 278 yards, and 4 touchdowns) and Trea Burgess (40 carries, 185 yards, and 1 touchdown). Willis also has 11 catches and a touchdown. The problems for the Hoosiers are on defense. They are giving up 28 points a game and just over 400 yards a game. The Hoosiers give up 168 yards a game on the ground and 231 yards a game in the passing game. They are +3 in turnover margin.
Illinois has said they would prefer not to get into a shootout with the Hoosiers as they only score 21 points a game. The Illini rush for over 200 yards a game, led by Mikel LeShoure who has 127 carries, 680 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase and running back Jason Ford also get significant carries and both ahve two touchdowns. The Illini passing game is inconsistent to say the least, as Scheelhaase has thrown for 7 interceptions and only 4 touchdowns. Scheelhaase The Illini are only passing for 136 yards a game. Turnovers have been a problem for the Illini as they are -8 in turnover ratio. The Illini also give up almost 60 yards in penalties a game. The top two receivers for Illinois are A.J. Jenkins (24 catches, 346 yards, and 3 touchdowns) and Jarred Fayson (25 catches, and 206 yards). On defense the Illini are only giving up 303 yards a game. They only give up 113 yards a game on the ground and 190 yards in the passing game.
This game matches up the strength of Indiana’s passing game versus the Illinois defense. Illinois is only giving up 18 points a game. Illinois will hope to control the clock with their running game and keep Indiana’s offense off the field. Rain is expected so that might slow down the Hoosiers offense as well. This line might be a little too high, because of the Illini’s inability to score and their propensity to turn the ball over. The Hoosier defense is pretty weak, but I think the weather will keep the score pretty close.
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